The candidacy of Denis Coderre for the leadership of the PLQ is not denied by the main person concerned. In this case, the expression takes on its full meaning. Because Mr. Coderre seems the person most interested in his return.
I made numerous calls on Wednesday, and the response was the same. It was phrased politely, more often than not. But for the sake of brevity, here’s a brutal summary: We want him to run, and we want him to lose.
His candidacy is welcome, because of his notoriety. The Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ) wants to avoid the scenario of 2020. Dominique Anglade was the only candidate – the establishment had encouraged Alexandre Cusson to take the plunge, but he withdrew partway through. With Mr. Coderre, it would not be boring. There would be debates.
Its popular style would break with the image of a party of elites and urbanites. An inexhaustible salesman, he would recruit new members. He also does not fear controversy and he assumes responsibility when he is convinced that he is right.
His arrival could also motivate other people to get started. In the Montreal municipal elections in 2021, candidates waited for Mr. Coderre to move before making up their minds. When he came on the scene, these people gave up on confronting him.
This time it could be the opposite. Because many liberals fear his arrival. Particularly in the caucus, where some fear his lack of listening and his limited interest in teamwork. The arrival of Mr. Coderre would intensify the search to find a credible opponent.
Mr. Coderre has strengths. He is experienced. His network is as vast as his ambition. Politics is his life. The further he is from a microphone, the less he breathes.
He seems to have already scripted this new comeback. Fortunately, he managed to recover from a stroke. He will publish a second book upon returning from his journey, in the spring, on the road to Compostela. As if he were going to seek a guarantee of a higher order after having come closer to heaven.
This cinematic crescendo would lead to an unveiling of the candidacy shortly before the official launch of the race, anticipated for the fall.
Last fall, the Committee on the Revival of the PLQ published a report inspired by a vast consultation of activists. The main recommendation was summed up in one word: renewal.
It is difficult to see how Mr. Coderre embodies it.
The most optimistic liberals see the CAQ falling in the polls. They note that the PQ, whose death was announced, are now leading. And they note that this rise can be explained, among other things, by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s new way of doing politics. This also explains the success of Bruno Marchand and the other mayors elected for the first time in 2021.
It’s a question of style, not age.
Mr. Coderre is coming off two consecutive defeats at the municipal level. However, in 2017 and 2021, he started with a lead. He screwed it up because of personality tics that haven’t gone away.
First there is the ego. On Tuesday, he maintained this: “if I had not talked about homelessness in 2013, we would not be talking about it today”. How can I put it… Politicians are complex beings, and Mr. Coderre has a bright side. He loves people. I was also often told that the issue touched him and that he stopped to chat with people experiencing homelessness and help them.
Nonetheless, his statement is burlesque. The scariest thing is that he seems to believe it. With the same audacity, he took advantage of Pope Francis’ visit to offer him the book of his losing municipal pre-campaign.
PHOTO TAKEN FROM DENIS CODERRE’S FACEBOOK ACCOUNT
Denis Coderre meets Pope Francis as part of his visit to Canada in the summer of 2022.
Then there is his immoderate passion for power. In 2019, he ruled out running for the leadership of the PLQ. “You can’t show up at every rack,” he said. But after the federal and the municipal, the provincial now interests him.
Then there is his tumultuous relationship with the truth. In May 2021, he was caught with his cell phone while driving. A mea culpa and 43 seconds later, we would have changed the subject. But despite the photo, he persisted in denying it. And we wondered: how will he react when the facts prove a serious error that needs to be corrected?
There is also the lack of listening. He is not known for his receptiveness to advice. In June 2021, he surprised his team with very spontaneous positions, such as banning alcohol from 8 p.m. in parks. I am told that these rants had put off star candidates at the time who were expected to join his municipal team, like Christine Fréchette, today CAQ Minister of Immigration.
And finally, there is the confusion between ideas and slogans. Mr. Coderre believes he can bridge the gap between French and English speakers. This is what he also claimed in 2021 after recruiting Hadrien Parizeau, grandson of the former PQ prime minister. But at the end of the campaign, Mr. Coderre surprised – and disappointed – him by suddenly attacking the reform of the Charter of the French language. Falling in the polls, he began courting the electorate of a marginal candidate hostile to the defense of French.
This condenses his style from another era: a career politician who loves the game, who is reluctant to admit his mistakes, who is ideologically fluid and who prefers to be alone on the stage.
On the national level, the campaigns are tougher than at the municipal level. The candidates travel across Quebec for five weeks with reporters relentlessly following them. Mr. Coderre’s tendency to grumble and sulk particularly worries liberals.
But for now, Mr. Coderre is talking about himself and the party. And for both, this is excellent news.