The entry of the Russian army into Ukraine and its consequences… The informed of the morning of February 24

0

Around Lorrain Sénéchal, Neila Latrouspolitical editorialist at franceinfo, Bertrand Gallicherspecialist in international issues at franceinfo, Frank Cognarda specialist in defense issues and Jean-Remi Baudotpolitical journalist at franceinfo, discuss the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Thursday, February 24.

>>> Follow the evolution of the situation in Ukraine in our live

What position of the international community?

The entry of Russian troops into Ukraine and the first strikes carried out in particular in the Ukrainian capital have been unanimously condemned by the West. However, the UN Security Council cannot translate its opposition into a resolution because Russia is a member and would veto it.

“What is interesting is the position of the Chinese, Judge Bertrand Gallicher, journalist for the international editorial staff of Radio France. Until now China had hinted that it would not really support Russia and here we have a reaction from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs which says ‘some countries have followed the United States by blowing on the embers’. We have the feeling that Beijing is reconsidering its position.”

Has the United States been blindsided?

This military operation was carried out in broad daylight and was in a way expected by the American intelligence services, explains Thomas Snégaroff, specialist in the United States: “There is little mention of a text written by Vladimir Putin in July 2021 of 50,000 characters, a book in which he clearly explains what is going to happen today. He tells us: ‘Ukraine belongs to Russia, we are closely related and brotherly peoples and whoever tries to alienate our peoples will suffer the consequences, including the destruction of his own country.

“The United States knew for months what Vladimir Putin had planned.”

Thomas Snegaroff

on franceinfo

“Was the United States blinded like Barack Obama with Crimea by their desire to shift to the Asia-Pacific zone? ?”, asks Thomas Snégaroff. According to the journalist, Vladimir Putin does not stop taking advantage of “moments of weakness” Americans: their desire to withdraw from the European military scene to concentrate on “Far East” and the presence of a president whom the Russian head of state considers “relatively low”. “It must be said, the image of Joe Biden internationally is the image of a rather weak president who watches the trains pass”.

What is Vladimir Putin’s military strategy?

Aiming at key targets, will Russia settle for a lightning offensive? For Franck Cognard, specialist in defense issues at franceinfo, “It’s a doctrine that dates back to the Soviet era, that is to say bombardments, targeted strikes on air bases, on Ukrainian military command centers. The idea obviously is to paralyze. We are in a fairly classic hybrid war as she experienced in Crimea eight years ago. We are in this first phase. But, he warns, “we are still in the fog of the first hours”.

What is certain, adds Franck Cognard, is that “there is a disproportion of strength between the second army in the world, the Russian, and the 22nd army in the world, the Ukrainian”. Between 150,000 and 200,000 men have been identified on the Russian side, “which is the equivalent of the Ukrainian army”. “Where Russia can put 800 fighters, continues Franck Cognard, the Ukrainians can oppose 70. On attack helicopters it’s one for fifteen, armor it’s about the same “.

Can Ukraine count on Europe?

What can the Ukrainian president do? For the moment, Volodymyr Zelensky has the support of all Europeans, explains Bertrand Gallicher, but they are divided and the whole question is how the 27 will react “if the Russians advance towards the Polish border, that is to say towards the border of the European Union”. Anti-bombing sirens sounded Thursday morning in Lviv, western Ukraine, where the United States moved its embassy, ​​which will “forcing Europe to react perhaps a little more firmly than what it has done so far”, ahead Bertrand Gallicher.

These European divisions are already illustrated in their military response in recent weeks, abounds Franck Cognard : “When the Czech Republic decides to provide 4,000 shells, France still hasn’t sent any material. England – which does a little what it wants now that it is no longer a member of the EU – sent anti-tank weaponry, Poles too. Germany made a fool of itself last week by sending 5,000 helmets.” Ukraine asked for weapons from France “but has not yet received a response”. There will be no automatic NATO intervention, specifies Franck Cognard, because Ukraine is not a member of the Atlantic Alliance.

What consequences in France?

For the moment, France has brandished only economic weapons against Russia. Emmanuel Macron was on the front line for the implementation of the sanctions voted by the European Union on Tuesday.

>>War in Ukraine: how did the presidential candidates react?

What impact on the domestic political scene a month and a half before the presidential election? The war in Ukraine “will inevitably have consequences”, believes Neila Latrous, political columnist for franceinfo. “On purchasing power, on agriculture, on gasoline, on gas, France cannot act as if it did not exist”.


source site