The day after his crushing defeat on October 2 in Jean-Talon, the interim leader of the PLQ, Marc Tanguay, admitted bluntly: “There is a long way to go to be the government in waiting. »
The Liberals are not the first to have to take a long walk, but we still have to move in the right direction. For the moment, they give the impression of moving away from their objective.
There was no hope that the PLQ would reclaim what had long been a fortress deemed impregnable, but the results in Jean-Talon were frankly discouraging. He was not able to recover even a fraction of the thousands of votes lost by the CAQ, QS and the Conservative Party.
A misfortune that never happens alone, the only member to consider running for the leadership, Fred Beauchemin (Marguerite-Bourgeoys), was excluded from the caucus following a complaint for psychological harassment filed by the president of the commission youth.
There is no assurance that they are founded, but an incident of this type can only be harmful, both to Mr. Beauchemin and to the party itself. In November 2021, allegations of the same nature made by PLQ employees against the member for Maurice-Richard Marie Montpetit led to her exclusion. Even though no formal complaint had been filed, this affair had poisoned the atmosphere in the middle of an election year.
The good news, if any, is that this makes the hasty start of a leadership race even less desirable, as Mr. Beauchemin would like. The worst scenario would be the coronation of a totally unknown MP, who has yet to do anything to demonstrate that he has the makings of a leader.
It is expected that the rules of the race will be set at the general council which meets at the end of the week in Drummondville. However, we should not exaggerate the significance of the proverbial “debate of ideas” which is supposed to result from this. A race is often richer in invectives and trials of intentions than in innovative proposals, as that of the Conservative Party demonstrated. It aims above all to give a face to a party.
After the 2012 defeat, it took the Liberals less than six months to elect a successor to Jean Charest, but the government of Pauline Marois was in the minority and the PLQ had to be ready for any eventuality, while an election before the deadline of October 2026 appears highly improbable.
Despite its official opposition status, the PLQ has practically disappeared from the radar screen of voters since October 3, 2022. Supporters of a hasty race argue that the new leader, especially if he is little known, will need time to establish himself, but it can also have the opposite effect if he instead reveals his weaknesses. Judging by the evolution of the polls on voting intentions, the PLQ would have fared better if Dominique Anglade had been able to present himself to the electorate more quickly.
Robert Bourassa, who was much less known than his opponents in the 1970 leadership race, became prime minister barely three months after being elected leader. In his entourage, we were very happy that Jean-Jacques Bertrand rushed the call to the polls before the image of nerd projected by the young economist does not alienate voters.
Certainly, nothing guarantees that the situation will be more favorable to the PLQ in 2025, but it could hardly be less favorable than currently. Perhaps not to the point of causing a traffic jam on the starting blocks, but at the very least to spare him the humiliation of another election by default.
We must not dream in colors: the chances that the PLQ will be an alternative solution to the Legault government in the eyes of voters in two years are slim, but the personal situation of potential candidates who have chosen to pass a round could have changed here there.
The question of whether a party should define its direction before choosing a new leader or proceed the other way around is the political version of the chicken-and-egg paradox. Since no answer is satisfactory, it is best to let circumstances dictate it.
After the worst defeat in its history, the PLQ could not sit idly by, but it will be up to the new leader to decide what he will retain from the report of the recovery committee co-chaired by former senator André Pratte and the MP for Bourassa-Sauvé, Madwa-Nika Cadet.
Jean Charest, Philippe Couillard and Dominique Anglade all claimed responsibility for the booklet entitled Liberal values and modern Quebec that Claude Ryan had written in 2002, but they applied the different principles set out there in a very variable manner.