Newly leaked documents suggest federal intelligence officials warned policymakers that police dispersal of so-called ‘freedom convoy’ protesters in Ottawa last winter could trigger an attack on a politician or symbol of the government.
It is also said that extremist influencers would leverage the outcome of the protests to continue recruitment and propaganda, whether restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic were eased or not.
Ideologically motivated extremists would likely use law enforcement “to encourage violent revenge or as further evidence of government ‘tyranny’,” according to the four-page assessment.
The partially redacted memo, obtained by The Canadian Press under the Access to Information Act, was part of several analyzes by a federal agency, the Integrated Terrorism Assessment Centre, produced before, during and after protests that paralyzed downtown Ottawa for three weeks beginning in late January.
The center, which is overseen by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), brings together security and intelligence professionals from various agencies to write terrorist threat assessments based on classified information, to be shared with partners at country and abroad.
The goal is to provide high-level decision-makers with the most up-to-date and detailed information to assess the overall level of threat and risk.
The police response as “additional evidence”
Demonstrators, many with large trucks, took to the streets of central Ottawa to protest against COVID-19 health measures and the Liberal government of Justin Trudeau. Their attendance, including some attendees with roots in far-right movements, prompted many businesses to close and plagued residents with noise, diesel fumes and harassment-like behavior.
On February 14, the government invoked the Emergency Measures Act, which authorized temporary measures, including regulating and banning public gatherings, designating safe places, ordering banks to freeze assets and a ban on supporting participants.
Authorities towed trucks, arrested more than 200 people and brought hundreds of charges.
Extremist ideologues have described the police response as “brutal” and the use of the Emergencies Act as further evidence of federal “tyranny”, comparing government tactics to those of the foreign dictatorships, notes the February 24 assessment.
Several incitements to violence online had surfaced, with some suggesting that direct action against politicians, police and even their families was the only option left.
“It’s something that usually happens with these kinds of movements,” said Barbara Perry, director of the Center on Hate, Bias and Extremism at Ontario Tech University.
“When you push them back, they use that as further proof that they are the ones being attacked, that their assessment is right, that they are being silenced, that they are the ones who are marginalized and threatened by this tyrannical state, as they like to call it. »
The so-called “freedom convoy” and related protests at government buildings and border crossings have fueled anti-authority sentiments among followers of ideologically motivated violent extremism, according to the Feb. 24 assessment.
Beware of an opportunistic attack
“The notion that societal resilience is fragile, or that government or police response justifies violent resistance, could inspire a lone actor or small group to carry out an opportunistic attack on a political figure or government symbol” , conclude the analysts.
“Supporters of ideologically motivated violent extremism will continue to encourage and capitalize on anti-government sentiments and protest movements, whether related to the pandemic or other issues, with the aim of damaging trust. public and social cohesion and to attract vulnerable people to their ideology. »
Relaxations of public health restrictions could calm the protest movement, but people who embrace violent extremism, especially those who “want to hasten the demise of current social and political orders, are unlikely to be appeased”, according to the Evaluation. “Threats against political figures and government symbols will persist for the foreseeable future. »
The capital would also be the scene of follow-up demonstrations, such as the one at the end of June, which included many figures involved in the winter events.
“They really set the stage and drew more people around a broader distrust of government, science, academics, the media — all of those institutions,” Barbara Perry said. “So I think they will continue to find ways to exploit those anxieties, to exploit those grievances that they helped create, or at least exacerbate. »
The Integrated Terrorism Assessment Center began tracking the Ottawa-bound truck convoy as early as January 26, producing a covert assessment that flagged the possibility of opportunistic violence on the fringes of the protest. A Feb. 3 analysis found that a coordinated terrorist attack or planned storming of Parliament Hill or other federal locations was unlikely.
“The most likely violent extremism-related scenario involves an inspired lone actor using available weapons and resources such as knives, guns, improvised explosives and vehicles in public spaces against soft targets, including including opposition groups or the population. »