If the Donbass fiercely resists the second Russian invasion of its territory, its political future remains uncertain. Meanwhile, humanitarian aid is struggling to reach villages near the front line, where hundreds of Ukrainians still live.
“No other car goes to the villages of Novotoshkivs’ke, Zolote-4 and Katerynivka, slips Daryna Safryhina, 28 years old. It’s just us. Caught under the fire of bombs between the positions of the Ukrainian army and those of the pro-Russian separatists, these villages located on the front line in the Luhansk region depend entirely on four young people.
“We do what we can, explains the young woman. We bring them bread, water, and also medicines, batteries, flashlights…” Provisions that arrive in the region thanks to volunteers who cross the country from west to east to supply the Donbass.
The village of Nyzhnie depends on a single person, says Daryna Safryhina. “A man goes by car to buy bread which he brings back to his store. » A path where one can cross paths with death at any moment.
“It’s scary,” says the young volunteer, who says she is driven by her faith in God. Humanitarian aid is channeled into cities, but does not always reach small towns. “The only hope for some villages is if someone has a car and is not afraid to drive. »
Journeys that Daryna Safryhina promises to continue to make, despite the bombs. But if the worst happened [et que des séparatistes prorusses faisaient des avancées], I am going to leave. They are said to be worse than Russian soldiers, have no morals, rape women and kill pro-Ukrainians. »
Slight progress
On Tuesday, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported the capture of a dozen villages in Donbass by pro-Russian separatists. A slight advance, set up as a gain, which reflects the little success achieved so far by the pro-Russian and Russian troops in the region.
“The line of demarcation has hardly moved [en près d’un mois de combats], despite the large number of attacks, analyzes Nickolay Kapitonenko, professor at the Institute of International Relations at Taras Shevchenko University in kyiv. What seemed to be the easiest task for the Russians [dans cette invasion], to reach the administrative borders of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, ultimately seems quite difficult. »
Since the annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russia and the occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk by pro-Russian separatists in 2014, the Ukrainian army has been deployed in large numbers in the region. “Our defense seems to be holding up,” said Nickolay Kapitonenko. The initial Russian strategy, which seemed to be to encircle the Ukrainian army in the Donbass to cut the supply lines with the rest of the country, thus came up against a wall.
Foreign troops are reportedly closing in on Sievierodonetsk, the administrative center of the Luhansk region, however. “It has been very difficult lately, reports Daryna Safryhina. Some areas of the city are really destroyed, and others are no longer accessible to firefighters and humanitarian aid. »
Negotiation table
This tough resistance on the ground could however stumble on the concessions that the Ukrainian government could make to the Russian invader. For the first time since the February 24 invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was open on Tuesday to discussing the political future of Crimea and Donbass with Russia.
“The issue of Crimea and Donbass is very difficult for everyone,” said the strongman from kyiv, adding that he was nevertheless open to “trying to address everything that upsets and displeases Russia”. The country of Vladimir Putin will however have to offer “security guarantees” and stop the fighting before negotiations on these two regions can take place, added the Ukrainian president.
“We must do everything to bring Donbass and Crimea back to us. […] A question of time? Yes. But stopping the war now, that’s the question,” he said, adding that the concessions made to Russia could be put to a referendum.
Volodymyr Zelensky took the opportunity to reaffirm that Ukraine will not surrender, but that he does not want “history to make us heroes and a nation that does not exist”.
Not immediately
But before tackling the political future of Crimea and Donbass head-on, many other aspects inherent to the conflict must be settled, believes Andrei Kortounov, director general of the think tank Russian International Affairs Council, in Moscow. “The main task is to stop the bloodshed. Until that’s done, it’s very difficult to have a serious discussion on any other topic,” he wrote. Homework.
Each party still believes victory is possible and is betting on time to seal the ascendancy over its adversary, jointly analyze Russian expert Andrei Kortunov and Ukrainian professor Nickolay Kapitonenko. “The ability to stop this confrontation depends on the willingness of the parties to abandon their maximalist demands and try to find a compromise,” points out Andrei Kortunov.
Where there is a possibility of finding common ground quickly, it is at the level of Ukraine’s non-membership of NATO, believe the two experts. An attachment of Ukraine to the Atlantic Alliance is out of reach, recalls Nickolay Kapitonenko. “And it was an issue that was raised in the eyes of the Russian public as crucial to Russian security and which justified the invasion. It is therefore a victory that Putin could sell to Russian public opinion. »
Andreï Kortounov also believes that Ukraine could accept a status of neutrality in exchange for an acceleration of its process of accession to the European Union. With in return a withdrawal of Russian troops and an abandonment of Moscow’s demands for regime change in kyiv, the ground would be more favorable to find a solution to other issues. “The more steps there are taken towards a de-escalation, the more difficult it is to go up them”, underlines the Russian expert.
Negotiations on the political future of Donbass and Crimea will be long and difficult, predicts Nickolay Kapitonenko, who proposes that a procedure be established to settle the future of these two regions in a few years, by referendum or by another avenue. “But whatever deal President Zelensky makes with Russia will deeply divide Ukrainian society,” he said. Any concession will be seen as unacceptable by a large part of Ukrainians. And that will definitely be a problem. »