On Monday, June 24, 2024, voters in Toronto–St. Paul’s, a riding in the center of Canada’s largest city, blew hard enough on the Liberal fortress, which collapsed in favor of the Conservative Don Stewart. Thirty-six years had passed without the Liberals being shaken. But here it is: the brick house of the three little red pigs was quickly transformed into a straw house…
The result at the polls is unequivocal and places the Conservative Party of Canada (PCC) in a good position to maintain the significant gap in its favor in voting intentions ahead of the next Canadian elections. This change from red to blue in Toronto probably made Justin Trudeau turn purple, enough to make him think more seriously about his political future, or not.
But is this defeat really a test of leadership for the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada (PLC), who has not risen in the polls for more than a year now and lags far behind the PCC? Is it not rather the illustration of a blue wave, much deeper this one, which is beginning to break, here as almost everywhere in the world, advocating the right, even the extreme RIGHT ?
One thing is certain, the examples are piling up. Europe has seen a dark blue government installed in Italy, a meteoric rise in populism in France, a far-right government in Hungary, without forgetting Finland, Sweden and the Netherlands, where we observe support or right-wing participation in existing governments… And what about Argentina in Latin America, where the government is determined to repress trade union activity and increase repressive measures? The list is not exhaustive. The center and the left are more and more absent from the international political scene, it’s chilling.
We would be tempted, with the recent results of the Toronto by-elections, to plan a dinner between the members of Justin’s inner circle to suggest that he take a vacation… and forget to come back, a bit like directors of hockey clubs who fire their coach when the players are going around in circles and the team is going nowhere. Pulling on the “coach” in this way is not always beneficial or a guarantee of better days, far from it. But finding a scapegoat is sometimes THE way to give yourself the illusion that you are acting on the problem and give yourself a false conscience. In the absence of a dustpan, we sweep under the carpet. And hop ! The problem no longer exists…
Justin Trudeau certainly carries repeated blunders in his backpack. He also cruelly lacks verbal repartee, speaks in questionable French and collects evasive, empty responses. However, would his departure from the PLC necessarily be the driving force behind a significant rise in the polls, even in the presence of a brilliant candidate who would be unanimously supported within the party? The serious options to effectively take up the red torch are not jostling at the gate… that too, is symptomatic of a deeper problem.
Justin leaves, Justin stays… Heads or tails? In both cases, the blue wave is likely to impose itself, without the poll needle even changing a single point this imposing gap, which will soon become obsessive for the reds.