The reluctance of some Liberals to immediately change leaders is understandable. It wouldn’t be without risk.
Posted at 8:15 p.m.
As reported by our bureau chief Tommy Chouinard, veterans are urging Dominique Anglade to step down for the good of the party. Others are more discreet. Perhaps because they see the difficulties on the horizon.
Look at the Liberal caucus. Among the 19 other deputies, who would do better? Who would command respect internally while confronting the Legault government?
Few names come to mind, except perhaps that of André Fortin. The former Minister of Transport had thought of confronting Mme Anglade in the previous leadership race before withdrawing for family reasons.
To ensure the interim, however, he should give up running for the leadership. Would he accept it? Hard to say…
For the past few days, he has maintained a suspicious silence. He would have left on Monday on a family vacation. In the last month, he published a single tweet, to celebrate the victory of two Aylmerois at the world championships of mixed curling. Nothing to support his boss.
Liberals urge Mme Anglade to think first of the party and to leave with his head held high. We are talking about the case of Daniel Johnson, who had given way to Jean Charest in 1998. But that was at the dawn of an election campaign. This time, the Liberals are not in a hurry.
Mme Anglade could recall that Pauline Marois had not resigned after her defeat in 2008, to take power four years later. Still, it was the exception to the rule, that she had allowed her party to regain the official opposition and that she had nevertheless suffered an attempted putsch before obtaining a disappointing minority mandate.
Morality ? There are not any. Each case is unique and must be analyzed according to its particular circumstances.
Two questions immediately arise: Who should decide the fate of Mr.me England? How to organize the race for her succession if she leaves?
A formal vote of confidence would be more democratic and orderly.
The party’s constitution requires holding one before November 2023. If the vote was held soon, the dissatisfied would wait more easily.
The problem for the chef is that she does not set the date. This decision rests with the executive council, which has 14 members, including her.
She could ask to hold this vote soon. But if the executive does not listen to her, she will lose face. This is why she wanted this vote to be held quickly, without officially requesting it.
The vote could hardly be held before June. The mechanics are heavy. According to the party’s constitution, a limited number of members can participate in the vote of confidence. Among them: the executive council, the board of directors, deputies, candidates and presidents of associations as well as members chosen by the youth wing and the commissions responsible for the political program, cultural communities and seniors.
Each of the 125 constituency associations must also appoint 12 voting members. However, some are orphans. Reassembling them will take a long time. Probably too many to organize a congress this winter.
The next general elections will take place in October 2026. A lot could happen between now and then.
Mme Can Anglade still earn the trust of its members? That decision is up to liberal activists, not the general population.
A hasty departure from Mme Anglade would be ahead of the race for his successor. The earlier it occurs, the less prestigious candidates from outside will show up. Because they will not have had time to organize themselves, and also because the unpopularity of the Liberal Party will discourage them.
In addition, if the leader resigns today, a by-election will have to be called before the summer. Everything indicates that it would take place before the election of the person who will succeed him. If the latter comes from outside, she will not be able to take advantage of the partial to become a deputy. And no one knows if another winnable seat for the Liberals would become available before 2026. It’s a come to think of it, because a new leader without a seat in the Assembly would struggle to assert himself.
This, in short, is what may encourage caution.
But conversely, there is one thing that should worry Mme Anglade: Everything I’ve written, old liberals like Nicole Ménard know. And despite everything, they demand his departure, because they have lost confidence for good following the unnecessary expulsion of the deputy Marie-Claude Nichols.
If the chief wants to hang on, according to what I’m told, she must send a signal. Like a change in his entourage to ease internal tensions.
It would be his last chance to buy time and pull off the unlikely feat of regaining the party’s trust after an election beating.
Ultimately, this decision will not depend on her. But one thing is certain, those who take it will have a less simple choice than it seems.