Winds of change in the land of smiles. After nine years of pro-military conservative government, the young centre-left movement Move Forward (MF) won the legislative elections on Sunday, opening the door to a dynamic of reforms in Thailand.
What there is to know
- The young left-wing party Move Forward wins the legislative elections in Thailand, which could bring a wind of reform to the country.
- Military-backed conservative parties bite the dust
- The leader of Move Forward will have to maneuver skillfully to create a governing coalition. At the cost of what concessions?
“It was the right time, people suffered too much. […] Today is a new day and I hope it brings sunshine and hope,” Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat said at a press conference Monday in Bangkok.
-
PHOTO ATHIT PERAWONGMETHA, REUTERS
Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of the Move Forward party, at a press conference after the parliamentary elections
-
PHOTO WASON WANICHAKORN, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Supporter of the Move Forward party and its leader, Pita. In Thailand, we actually designate by the first name.
-
PHOTO LILLIAN SUWANRUMPHA, AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE
The victory of Move Forward in the legislative elections opens the door to a dynamic of reforms in Thailand
-
PHOTO JACK TAYLOR, AGENCY FRANCE-PRESSE
A record turnout of 75.22% was recorded and resulted in outright rejection of the pro-military Conservative government.
-
PHOTO LILLIAN SUWANRUMPHA, AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE
A man reads a Thai daily newspaper with election coverage at a newsstand in Bangkok, the capital of Thailand.
-
PHOTO LILLIAN SUWANRUMPHA, AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE
Pita Limjaroenrat (on the car, white shirt) leads a victory parade through the streets of Bangkok.
1/6
Driven by a record turnout of 75.22%, the orange-colored party won 151 seats out of 500, ahead of Pheu Thai, the other “progressive” opposition force (141 seats), and the center party right Bhumjaithai (70 seats), of former Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon.
The United Thai Nation (UTN) party of outgoing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha arrives for its part in 5e position, with only 36 elected. A scathing setback for this former soldier, who took power following the 2014 coup.
2 “It’s a clear victory for the opposition over the conservative forces,” confirms Erik Kuhonta, a specialist in Southeast Asia at McGill University.
This is a very strong signal from the Thai people, who have a great desire for political, social and economic reform. Because Move Forward was the party with the most radical program…
Erik Kuhonta, Southeast Asia specialist
Pita Limjaroenrat, a 42-year-old Harvard graduate, did not wait before declaring victory, presenting himself on Monday as the “next prime minister of Thailand” and the one who would form “a new government”.
A clearly premature statement, says Manuel Lallemand, a professor at Nipissing University in North Bay. In fact, Pita (in Thailand, we designate by the first name) will have to forge political alliances if he hopes to take power. A round of negotiations that could last “at best weeks, at worst months”, according to this specialist in Thai politics. There would also be legal hurdles awaiting the head of the MF.
Too early to tell
You should know that under the country’s electoral rules, a simple majority in the Assembly is not enough to win. Because in addition to the 500 deputies in the lower house, the 250 senators – chosen by the army – also participate in the choice of the prime minister. This system forces the opposition parties to obtain a very large alliance of 376 seats out of 750 in total, to thwart a candidate close to the military.
PHOTO MANAN VATSYAYANA, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, leader of the progressive Pheu Thai party
The leader of Move Forward thus reached out to his Pheu Thai party counterpart, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, currently in exile.
These two political forces, considered progressive, could join forces with other parties to hope for a coalition of some 310 seats. Insufficient for the majority, but important enough to impose a dialogue on the members of the Senate.
“The military cannot ignore the popular will,” observes Manuel Lallemand. Ignoring a coalition of this magnitude would risk provoking new protests and causing instability. This is something the country does not want, especially after the COVID crisis and as tourism is recovering. »
Crime of lèse-majesté
In all cases, compromises are to be expected.
Pheu Thai and Move Forward share the observation of a failing Thai economy that needs reform. But they are opposed on many social issues, such as article 112, which severely punishes the crime of lèse-majesté.
Pita repeated his promise to break this taboo, which political parties for a long time did not dare to address, and which was at the heart of the 2020 and 2021 protests in Thailand. Many young Thais are calling for less power for the monarchy and its unwavering support, the army. Currently, royal libel in Thailand is punishable by up to 15 years in prison.
This file is an absolute priority for Move Forward, while Pheu Thai is more cautious on the issue. The more right-wing Bhumjaithai party is for the status quo, but its votes are vital for a possible alliance. For the army, finally, it is officially the red line not to be exceeded. A warning to consider in this country which has experienced 18 coups – 12 of them successful – since the 1930s.
Will Move Forward have to give in on the merits? “Possible, but difficult,” replies Erik Kuhonta. Because this promise of reform is the basis of their identity. It is their very legitimacy that would be called into question. »
A real existential dilemma for the “next prime minister” of Thailand. And this, even before being in power…
With Agence France-Presse