What Russia “presented as being a withdrawal, even a gesture of goodwill, is in fact a military incapacity”explains conflict and international security specialist and teacher at Sciences Po Julien Théron on Thursday April 7 on franceinfo, as the Russian army left the Ukrainian capital to focus on eastern Ukraine.
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franceinfo: Is the war in Ukraine entering a new phase, with the imminent Russian offensive in the east of the country?
Julien Theron: Yes, absolutely. The Battle of kyiv was lost by the Russian Federation, it failed to penetrate the heart of the city. What it presents as being a withdrawal, even a gesture of goodwill, is in fact a military incapacity. The objectives have changed, the Kremlin has indicated it, it is now a question of “liberating” the eastern zone, that is to say consolidating the seizure of territories to the south and east. The Kremlin generally speaks only of the Donbass region, but there is also still an extremely significant presence around Kharkiv as well as in the south. But we realize that all these areas that are Russian-speaking, including the cities of Kharkiv or Mariupol, are areas that are resisting invasion.
“The narrative that would say that if you are Russian-speaking, you necessarily want to be Russian and that you are waiting for Russian liberators, turns out to be completely wrong on the ground.”
Julien Théron, conflict and international security specialistat franceinfo
It must be understood that this is an invasion and a takeover of the territory by the Russian Federation.
Ukraine is asking for more weapons from the West, especially from NATO. Are these weapons useful? Is it possible to give some without going to war with Russia?
They are absolutely essential to the Ukrainian resistance since it is thanks to these weapons that the Russian army was defeated. It is also thanks to a number of other elements, including the hacking of Russian guidance systems and a series of unpreparedness on the side of the Russian military. But indeed, weapons play an absolutely essential role in this resistance. There has been a reinforcement of Ukraine’s capabilities, in particular with drones and missiles, but in reality, it lacks armored vehicles, and the old Soviet planes which were to be delivered to it have remained in suspense, it does not there was no sequel. So indeed, yes, there is capacity building that is possible to help the Ukrainians. The Czech Republic has just decided to deliver armored vehicles. We can absolutely deliver armored vehicles or planes without making our countries co-belligerents.
Can Ukraine win this war?
Not only can it win it, but it is essential for the West that it win it.
“A Ukrainian defeat would still be an open door, after Syria, to the possibility for any power to invade its neighbors to recover territory, control its population, its resources, by carrying out crimes against civilian populations in a way massive and with impunity.”
Julien Theronat franceinfo
If we are concerned about an international order that is based on stability, security, the maintenance of borders as well as on international law, then it is essential that Ukraine win this war.
The Russian army is suspected of having committed war crimes in Boutcha. Will we discover other similar facts?
It’s already the case. There have been other areas around Kyiv where civilians have been intentionally targeted. In general, whether you kill a civilian with a bullet in the head, with a tank shell or with a surface-to-surface missile, it comes down to exactly the same thing: you don’t have the right to target civilians. The intentionality of these crimes can be demonstrated by an absolutely general practice of an armed force. And indeed, these are practices that we see in a whole host of territories. The arrest of elected officials, the civilians targeted in Mariupol, today there are massive bombings in Donetsk, bombings in Kharkiv… The civilians also targeted in the kyiv region. These are large-scale practices.