NATO confirmed on Sunday the departure next October of its secretary general, the Norwegian Jens Stoltenberg, and revived speculation about his succession.
There is still no consensus on the replacement for the former Norwegian prime minister, in office since 2014. But many avenues are open, including the choice of a woman to become the first boss of the Military Alliance after 17 men, diplomats said.
The post of Secretary General traditionally falls to a European, because the military chief of NATO, at the head of the Supreme Allied Command in Europe, is an American. Since the creation of the position in April 1952, it has very often been entrusted to a Minister of Foreign Affairs or a Minister of Defence.
Some allies were considering extending Jens Stoltenberg’s term again until 2024, but Stoltenberg, who will turn 64 in March, announced on his return from the United States on Sunday that he wanted to leave his post at the later this year.
“The term of the secretary general has been extended three times, and he has served for a total of almost nine years,” said his spokeswoman, Oana Lungescu. “He has no intention of asking for a further extension. »
This decision revives the race for his succession, and some governments have begun to circulate names in the media. The appointment is made by consensus of the ambassadors of the 30 countries, with a decisive vote from Washington. The choice should in principle be known for the NATO summit organized on July 11 and 12 in Vilnius, Lithuania.
A woman’s time?
The idea of appointing a woman from a member state of the European Union was launched when Jens Stoltenberg was called in February 2022 to head the central bank of Norway.
He was to take up his new post the following December, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upset his departure. In March 2022 NATO leaders extended his mandate until September 30, 2023.
For seven decades, the Alliance has been led by men from Western European countries. The last four NATO chiefs have been a Briton, a Dutchman, a Dane and a Norwegian, with an interim Italian.
But the organization’s strategic interests have shifted to its eastern flank, where new members on the Baltic and Black Sea coasts are on the front line against an aggressive Russia.
Poland and the Baltics now see their long-standing warnings of Moscow justified, and they have taken the lead in calls to arm and support Ukraine against invasion.
The candidacies of the Lithuanian Prime Minister, Ingrida Šimonytė, or her Estonian counterpart, Kaja Kallas, have many supporters, without however reaching a consensus, according to diplomatic sources.
Both have for a long time adopted a very hard diplomatic line with regard to Russia, which has earned them the support of the most opposed allies in Moscow, but serious reservations in many capitals.
The appointment of a Balt would be perceived as too provocative towards Russia and could lead to a direct conflict with Moscow.
No candidacy has yet been formalized, but other names are circulating. The President of the European Commission, the German Ursula von der Leyen, former Minister of Defense, would be interested in the post, but her mandate runs until the end of 2024, and the decision announced on Sunday by Jens Stoltenberg to step down in October puts it out of the race, explained a European official.
The Dutch have a candidate with their defense minister, Kajsa Ollongren. Britain, which has already provided three secretaries-general in NATO’s history, could play the card of its defense minister, Ben Wallace, but Brexit disqualifies him for the 21 allied members of the EU. France never presents a candidate, but its vote counts for the appointment of the Secretary General, and its positions will be decisive.
The designation of a non-European secretary general is mentioned as a joker with the candidacy of the Canadian deputy prime minister, Chrystia Freeland, but the idea does not take. “There is no consensus,” acknowledged a senior NATO official.
The American president, Joe Biden, has not yet thought about the succession, we know at the White House.