This text is part of the special Francophonie notebook
The Demographic and Statistical Observatory of the French-speaking Space (ODSEF), statistical arm of the French Language Observatory of the International Organization of La Francophonie, has revolutionized the way of compiling data on French speakers. “But the work is never finished, even if we are now 95% certain of our data,” reveals Richard Marcoux, sociologist at Laval University and director of ODSEF.
Before the ODSEF, we proceeded a little shadyly. For each country, the General Delegation for the French Language and the Languages of France sent a questionnaire to officials or ambassadors, who most often responded randomly. “From one time to the next, they could report 27% or 47% French speakers. For a country of 102 million inhabitants like the Democratic Republic of Congo, that makes a big difference,” explains Richard Marcoux.
The ODSEF therefore arrived in the file in 2009 to provide science. In search of conclusive data, its researchers identified censuses where the question of spoken language or written language proficiency was asked — which is the case in Canada, but also in African countries and in Europe , with the Eurobarometer. And this is how, since 2010, the organization has reported fairly precise numbers: 327 million French speakers in 2023, or 6 million more than in 2022 according to Francoscope.
The Asian question
“It’s a number that we are 95% certain of, but there is real uncertainty in Asia and Latin America, which represent around 5% of the totals. In these regions, in the absence of official data, we proceed based on estimates from informed observers. »
This is how the ODSEF commissioned Richard Marcoux into the soft underbelly of the statistical Francophonie to look for solid ground. First in Vietnam in 2023, then in Latin America in 2024.
After a few months between Hanoi and Phnom Penh, he brought back from South-West Asia some great discoveries and interesting observations. In particular, he discovered that Cambodia and Thailand have usable data on the French language. “Cambodians, in the census, must answer if they know how to read and write Khmer, but also in other languages, and there is a code for French. And we find something similar in Thailand. »
The latest estimate was 463,000 Cambodian French speakers (3% of the population) and 578,000 Thai French speakers (1%). How many are there in reality? “It is still too early to conclude, but the rate will be revised downwards. I hope to be able to present it before the next Francophonie Summit next fall,” he said.
As for Vietnam (693,000 French speakers, or 1% of the population), there is no statistical data, but the government is starting to take an interest in foreign languages, notes the researcher. “The foundation of Vietnamese is very solid. I met few people there who could speak to me in English or French. The foreign language that is widely taught there is Korean, before Japanese. The language dynamics there are very interesting. »
On the African continent
If Richard Marcoux is very certain of the African data, he admits to being less certain of the forecasts over 20, 30 or 40 years. “The Observatory of the French Language has always published its forecasts on a range which extends from 350 to 700 million over 40 years,” he explains. Unfortunately, the media have mainly focused on the most optimistic scenario. This year, we want to refocus the message towards more realism, particularly because schooling is stagnating. »
However, for 60 years, the primary driver of the growth of French has been education rather than demographics. In Mali, a country that Richard Marcoux knows very well, the number of French speakers has multiplied by 33 while the population quadrupled during the same period.
However, school enrollment rates are plateauing in almost all African countries, a strong trend exacerbated by the double impact of the pandemic and the rise in violence (notably jihadism in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), which have forced the closure of schools for extended periods. “It’s everywhere, including in English-speaking Africa and Portuguese-speaking Africa. Teachers drop out and take better paid jobs in NGOs. »
Realism does not, however, mean pessimism, he asserts. The base remains strong in countries like Benin, Togo and Ivory Coast. Richard Marcoux believes that the demotion of the status of French in Mali, where it has gone from official language to working language, could have no effect. Can a country that has difficulty financing its schools find the additional resources to transfer the language of instruction to 15 national languages? he asks. “Each country has its own dynamics, which must be studied. »
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