The war in Ukraine has reshuffled the cards in the game of geopolitical balances. Especially for India, which is trying to maintain good relations with Westerners without displeasing Moscow. A difficult position to take into account given the weight of this emerging country.
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The war in Ukraine has upset the diplomatic situation and modified geopolitical balances. India, for example, is in a delicate position: this emerging country must try to maintain good relations with the West, without displeasing Russia, that is to say, without formally condemning the invasion of Ukraine. .
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If Indian diplomacy refuses to take sides against the Kremlin in the conflict in Ukraine, it is primarily for military reasons: the list of equipment supplied to India by Moscow is impressive. There are 3,500 tanks of Russian origin, manufactured in India under license, the majority of which are old T72s, but also MIG21, MIG 29 and Sukhoi combat aircraft. Heavy equipment bought from Russia for decades and that India needs to maintain to protect its borders with China and Pakistan. Several contracts are underway: S400 anti-aircraft systems and warships. Admittedly, the Indian army has other suppliers, including France with the “Rafale” and also the United States.
But Western pressures have not convinced India to rally unambiguously to the Ukrainian cause. “Since the beginning of the Russian aggression in Ukraine, the Indian posture has been very restrained on the diplomatic level, explains Isabelle Saint-Mezard, lecturer at the French Institute of Geopolitics at the University of Paris VIII. Indians refuse to criticize Russia. They were pressured by the United States and the Europeans but did not give in. They are the ones who must have taken note that the Indians would not change their position vis-à-vis Russia.”
Another reason for India’s reluctance in the war between Russia and Ukraine: its energy supply. The Indian economy is 80% dependent on imports for its oil consumption. New Delhi intends to take advantage of the Western embargo on black gold from Russia to obtain supplies at low prices. Russian coal is also of interest to Indians. These data constrain Indian diplomacy. The Indian Prime Minister’s recent invitation to the G7 at the end of June did not change his mind. Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister, condemns the war but not Russia.