For those who doubted it, or who simply refused to see the reality, the data released on August 17 by Statistics Canada show that French is indeed in decline in Canada and Quebec.
For language optimists, this data must have come as a cold shower. The statistical agency has been able to create a diversion by emphasizing linguistic diversity and by putting forward that, oh surprise, “French and English remain the most spoken languages in Canada”, it will not be able to avoid the question of the evolution of the relative weight of the two official languages in Canada. In the Canadian sociopolitical context, this is the central and unavoidable issue.
In Canada outside Quebec, Francophones by mother tongue only represent 3.5% of the population. French as the main language used at home now represents only 2% of the total in Canada outside Quebec. Francophones outside Quebec are in absolute and relative decline: Prime Minister Trudeau could advantageously use the words of François Legault and evoke Louisianization, without risking being wrong.
In Quebec, no offense to Legault, we cannot talk about Louisianization, not yet, but that does not mean that the situation is not worrying. Regardless of the indicator used, the growth of English is greater than that of French. From 2016 to 2021, the English-speaking population increased by 12% according to mother tongue, and by 14% according to language spoken at home. During the same period, the Francophone population increased by 2%, according to the two indicators.
The mother tongue represents the past; the language spoken at home — the language that will be transmitted to the children — represents the future. Since the 1991 census, the number of French speakers has increased slightly and steadily. As for English, it first declined in the 1990s, mainly due to the interprovincial migration of Anglophones to Anglophone provinces.
Following the 1995 referendum, this strong migration tended to decrease and, at the same time, international immigration increased rapidly. Despite a selection policy favorable to French, the appeal of English remains strong and allophones continue to make language transfers to English.
As a result, English has been growing faster than French since 2001, but the latest census shows a new change in trends. The growth of English is now six times faster than that of French.
Imbalance
Should we be alarmed? It seems obvious that despite 50 years of Bill 101, the long-sought linguistic balance has not been achieved. The weight of English is still increasing and goes from 11.8% in 2016 to 12.9% in 2021 among speakers of an official language in Quebec. We used to see this indicator increase, but not as much over a five-year period.
Behind these seemingly modest figures hides a significant social and historical reality. Those with French as their mother tongue are relatively less important. Those who speak it mainly at home are relatively less important. As for knowledge of the official languages, the number of French unilinguals is decreasing, while bilingualism is increasing by nearly 10%, and English unilingualism is increasing by 20%!
And in Montreal? As we know, the linguistic dynamic has intensified there and the Statistics Canada press release is surprisingly silent on the subject. On the island of Montreal, in terms of mother tongue, Francophones have been in the minority since 2006 and their proportion is constantly decreasing. The latest census tells us that they only represent 46% of the population, compared to 35% for allophones and 18% for anglophones. Recent developments are quite similar in terms of the language used.
Regardless of the indicator used, the situation of French is in relative decline compared to English across the country. The federal government has been and remains unable to protect French in Canada. For the defense of French in Quebec, we certainly cannot imagine that it will be otherwise.
Rather than supporting the challenges to Bill 96, the federal government should consider adapting its policy of assistance to minority language groups and proportionally subsidizing more Francophones outside Quebec and less Anglophones in Quebec, whose linguistic vitality and demographic future are not at risk.