Faced with social anger and the filing of two motions of censure, the majority wonders about its future.
Nothing is going any more, to listen to certain macronists, since the triggering of 49.3, Thursday March 16, to pass the pension reform without a vote. The National Rally and the Liot group (Liberties, Independents, Overseas and Territories) each filed a motion of censure this Friday, March 17. If one of them obtains a majority, the government will be overthrown.
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In the official version of the government, after having said that we were going to vote on reform, we are now going to vote on censure, as if it were the same. For the moment, we are concentrating on the obstacle, telling ourselves that afterwards, we will be able to move forward. Except that behind the scenes, it’s much more complicated. Beyond the transpartisan censure motion, the presidential camp is asking many questions about a reconfiguration that allows us to turn the page. The use of article 49.3, which caused an outcry in the ranks of the opposition, also triggered rallies in several cities in France, interspersed with incidents which bring back bad memories of the movement of “yellow vests”. Worse, 49.3 has also weakened the majority itself.
“Dissolution seriously tickles the Castle”
A majority “furious“, said one of its pillars, as the deputies wanted to go to the vote.They have the feeling that in the eyes of Emmanuel Macron, they are useless“, confides a faithful of the president. He describes them so demoralized, so demobilized, that, for him, all the next texts will have difficulty in passing.
The Prime Minister is also weakened, her method having failed, she, however, who has repeated so many times that an objective majority with the Republican deputies exists. But the concessions made by Elisabeth Borne to the right-wing party – not to the unions, nor to the demonstrators – did not prevent her from struggling.
If, before 49.3, changes in the government were already envisaged, there, with “the motions of censure voted or rejected, it is Élisabeth Borne who will leave“, regrets a friend. Thursday, March 16, she said herself ready to serve as “fuse”.
“She cannot stay, whereas she has made dialogue and discussion the alpha and the omega.”
A relative of the Prime Ministerat franceinfo
But who can replace her? There are suitors, such as the Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin, whose candidacy is considered among the macronists as a poorly kept secret. And what to do, then, with this angry National Assembly? “Dissolution seriously tickles the Castle“, confides an evening visitor to franceinfo. But, officially, on the side of the Élysée, we procrastinate: the polls are not good. “The president can’t press the button just to see what’s going on“, said his entourage.
A meeting of the candidates defeated in the last legislative elections
This does not prevent Emmanuel Macron from preparing. “Be in permanent campaign”, he said to his troops in July 2022, after the poor result in the legislative elections. Richard Ferrand, one of his closest friends, is even working to reunite those who, like him, were beaten at the time, to put them back on their feet and prepare them to return to battle. A meeting, scheduled for Monday March 20 in Paris, has been postponed, for fear of a train strike, and already of demonstrations around the Palais-Bourbon.
In the meantime, we act as if it was enough to let the storm pass. “We postpone all the announcements, even good ones, because for the moment nothing is audible”, told a member of the ministerial cabinet to franceinfo. Elisabeth Borne canceled her first meeting on the morning agenda, but maintained a meeting of ministers on ecological planning this Friday, March 17 afternoon.