A new demographic projection released by Statistics Canada on Thursday illustrates that in 2041, Canada will have a larger, more cosmopolitan population with more regional differences.
According to the reference scenario, the Canadian population would reach 47.7 million people in 2041. Of these, 25 million would be immigrants or children of immigrants born in Canada, representing 52.4% of the total population then that in 2016, this population was 14.4 million people and represented 40% of the total Canadian population.
Statistics Canada points out that immigration will remain the main driver of population growth over the coming decades. As a result, in 2041, the proportion of immigrants within the population could reach between 29.1% and 34% depending on the scenario chosen, up from 21.9% in 2016.
This population of 2041 would be made up of 9.9 to 13.9 million people born in Asia or Africa; these people could therefore represent between 23.1% and 26.9% of the total Canadian population, compared to 13.5% in 2016.
The Black population would more than double, from 1.2 million people in 2016 to over 3 million people in 2041. For the first time, the Black population would outnumber the Indigenous population in Canada. However, West Asians and Arabs are the racialized groups expected to experience the fastest growth.
The federal agency reports that the proportion of the racialized population should be significantly higher in metropolitan areas. It would rise above the national average in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Abbotsford–Mission, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Windsor and Regina, as well as in all central and western metropolitan areas . Moreover, in 2041, four out of five Torontonians will be born abroad or born to immigrant parents.
Conversely, the proportion of the racialized population would be lower than the national average in the east of the country, in Quebec, as well as in rural regions across Canada.
In Montreal, the main racialized group would continue to be the black population, which would double from 276,000 people in 2016 to 673,000 people in 2041. Arabs would continue to be the second largest group, going from 194,000 people in 2016 to 496,000 people.