“The combined military capacity of Israel and the United States greatly exceeds that of Iran,” analyzes political scientist Gilles Kepel

After Israel’s deadly raid on an Iranian consulate in Damascus (Syria), is a response inevitable? “No, not really. (…) The attack on the consulate dates from April 1st and since then [les Iraniens] say they are going to (…) attack. The consequence is that the United States, which was in difficulty with Mr. Netanyahu, immediately came to the defense of the Jewish state.comments political scientist Gilles Kepel.

A “fragile” country

According to him, “In a way, Iran is caught in a trap”. Indeed, if the country attacks, “the consequences are likely to be terrible, because the combined military capacity of Israel and the United States greatly exceeds that of Iran.” This is a country otherwise “weakened”, who, he recalls, was unable to respond to the attack during the commemoration of the death of General Soleimani, which caused more than a hundred deaths at the start of the year. Iran is also becoming, according to the specialist, more of a “military dictatorship”that of the Pasdaran, that “the religious regime which was until then prevalent”. “If they strike, they risk having a very strong retaliation, which could shatter their power”summarizes Gilles Kepel.