At 7 AM local time, the rebel alliance led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham captured Damascus, marking the end of Bashar al-Assad’s 25-year regime. Assad reportedly fled the capital, leaving the world astonished. This uprising, which began in late November, saw rapid territorial gains against the Syrian army, culminating in a pivotal moment in Syria’s history. With Iran and Russia’s support waning, the implications for regional power dynamics are significant, raising concerns about future stability under HTS leadership and potential sectarian violence.
At precisely seven o’clock in the morning local time, a significant event unfolded: The rebel alliance, spearheaded by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has seized control of the Syrian capital, Damascus. This marks the downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, as confirmed by both the militia and official statements from the Syrian army and Prime Minister.
The swift collapse of Assad’s government, which had reigned with an iron fist for 25 years, took the world by surprise. Reports indicate that the dictator fled the capital early Sunday morning aboard a plane, with his current whereabouts remaining unknown.
A Historic Turning Point
What began as a modest offensive from the rebel-held northwest of Syria in late November rapidly escalated into a widespread uprising against Assad’s rule. Within days, HTS militants captured major cities like Aleppo and Hama before advancing towards Damascus.
Not only HTS but also Kurdish forces and local rebels from the southern regions successfully overtook territories from the Syrian army, whose troops largely retreated or surrendered without resistance.
This pivotal moment signifies a new chapter in Syria’s history: the rebels have accomplished what they failed to do during the 2011 uprising against Assad. At that time, the regime responded to calls for reform with brutal force, employing chemical weapons against civilians, which led to a devastating civil war that displaced hundreds of thousands and allowed the “Islamic State” to gain a foothold.
Despite receiving foreign support from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah over the years, Assad’s allies are now unable to sustain his oppressive regime. Russia, with only a few airstrikes in northwest Syria, has largely stepped back from active involvement, while Iran’s military advisors were recently withdrawn, signaling a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape.
Implications for the Middle East
Tehran has watched with increasing concern as its carefully constructed network of militias has nearly disintegrated. Following Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, losing the Assad regime, its oldest ally in the Arab world, is a considerable setback for Iran. This transformation suggests a drastic shift in the regional balance of power.
Until the last moment, both Iran and Russia sought a diplomatic resolution to the Syrian conflict, with their foreign ministers meeting in Doha alongside Turkey’s representative. However, the discussions yielded little more than vague affirmations of Syria’s sovereignty.
Some analysts speculate that Tehran and Moscow had already resigned themselves to Assad’s fate. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hinted at a desire for a ceasefire and dialogue between the government and opposition just hours before Assad’s escape. Similarly, an ex-Iranian diplomat noted that engaging in Syria had ultimately been a considerable drain on resources.
In the broader Arab world, the rapid disintegration of Assad’s regime has raised alarms. Gulf state representatives express concerns about potential chaos, leading them to re-engage with Assad in hopes of stability. However, skepticism remains, particularly regarding HTS, which is viewed as an unreliable ally by nations such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The Future Under HTS Leadership
In Syria, a mix of exhilaration and uncertainty prevails. Anas al-Rawi, a seasoned opposition figure who protested against Assad in 2011, shares his mixed feelings about the regime’s fall. While he is pleased, he harbors reservations about the HTS militants.
In recent years, HTS has attempted to present a more moderate image. Their leader, Mohammed al-Julani, has adopted a civilian name and directed his fighters to take control of state institutions in an orderly manner, prohibiting celebratory gunfire.
Having traveled to newly liberated cities, al-Rawi notes that HTS initially honored its promises, providing protection to Christians and other minorities in the areas it controls. This development is particularly noteworthy given HTS’s earlier affiliations with Al-Qaeda.
The Dawn of a New Era in Syria
As Sunday morning marked a crucial turning point in Syria’s history, the question of who will succeed Assad remains unanswered. There are concerns about the potential resurgence of sectarian violence, particularly among the Alawite minority loyal to Assad.
Interestingly, some areas in the Alawite stronghold of Latakia erupted in celebration, reflecting a complex reality. The fact that Damascus fell without bloodshed offers a glimmer of hope for a peaceful transition, potentially averting further civil conflict. Many now aspire for a new constitution and a brighter future for Syria.