In the political life of a society, there are sometimes times when history accelerates. Where the impression of attending a pivotal time is very real.
Posted at 1:00 p.m.
In Quebec, the 2018 election was significant. Not only was the multiparty system that had appeared in the last few election cycles maintained, but a new party took power for the first time since 1976. The alternation between the Parti Québécois (PQ) and the Liberal Party of Québec (PLQ) lasted nearly 50 year. So what does the 2022 election represent? Beyond the daily debates, tours and electoral promises, it is important to take a step back.
The arrival of the first government of the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) is consistent with a well-known concept in political science, that of a realignment election. Such an election upsets the established order. Vincent Lemieux also defined an electoral realignment as “an election where the order of the parties changes in seats or votes obtained, new parties may appear and old ones disappear.1 ». The late political scientist also specified that “the realignment can also extend over more than one election”.
For several years now, the Quebec political landscape has indeed been changing. Formerly dominant parties are gradually giving up their central place in the party system.
The end of bipartisanship, the renewal of players in the political system (both in terms of political parties and elected officials), the nature of the salient political issues in the public space, the evolution of Quebec nationalism and the behavior of the electorate appear as indicators of an ongoing change. To the benefit of new parties, these changes have accelerated in recent electoral cycles. A special issue of the journal Sociographic research which will be published in the fall will moreover analyze these transformations in more detail.
With five parties represented in the National Assembly at the time of its dissolution, we are witnessing a break-up of the Quebec partisan system. However, this transformation did not happen overnight. On the sidelines of the holding of a referendum on the future of Quebec, the opening to a multiparty system began in the mid-1990s, with the arrival of the Action Démocratique du Québec (ADQ). A first signal suggesting a realignment took place in 2007. When Mario Dumont became Leader of the Official Opposition, this third way would replace the PQ as the second dominant party. Quebec will then experience its first minority government since 1878. Then will follow the arrival in the House of the first elected representative of Québec solidaire (QS) in 2008. Paradoxically, the PQ then once again becomes the official opposition to the Liberal government, before leading another government minority in 2012. We could then speak of a certain period of recovery. Meanwhile, the ADQ merges with a new party to form the CAQ. The Third Way has since had a new leader: François Legault.
This evolution of Quebec political life is not disembodied. It is based on the transformation of society. Quebec is changing, and so are its political parties. New divisions are appearing and mobilizing more voters.
The Yes-No divide at independence gave way to new, more salient issues with the electorate. This is the case with the level of state intervention, which is characterized by a more classic debate between the right and the left. This is also true with regard to questions of identity where the parties clash on a multiculturalist-interculturalist axis. The same is true for the environmental question, where a new divide between economic decline and more sustainable development seems to be emerging.
However, both the PLQ and the PQ are struggling to adapt to this new political context. At the end of the last legislature, QS was even ahead of the PQ in number of seats. In the wake of the pandemic and the exclusion of a member of the CAQ caucus, the Conservative Party also entered the National Assembly. Thus, five parties and their leaders will criss-cross Quebec in a campaign bus.
This brings us back to the structuring issue of the 2022 election. Will the 2018 election only be a deviation election with a strong comeback of the PQ and the PLQ? A victory for the CAQ would, on the contrary, confirm that an electoral realignment has really taken place and that the long-term forces have truly changed. It is therefore not an election like the others.
1. Vincent Lemieux (2012), “Conclusion: a probable realignment, but without the emergence of a generational party”, in: Réjean Pelletier (dir.), Quebec political parties in turmoil. Better understand and assess their role, Quebec, Laval University Press, p. 393-404.
* Members of the Political Communication Research Group, the authors are respectively professor of political science at Laval University, doctoral student in political science at Laval University, professor at the National School of Public Administration and professor of political science at Laval University.