Every Wednesday, our parliamentary correspondent in Ottawa Marie Vastel analyzes a federal political issue to help you better understand it.
The surprise agreement between the Trudeau government and the New Democrats could hardly have been badly received by elected Liberals. Here they are almost guaranteed to keep their jobs for another three years and then be able to brag about their record to their constituents. But the agreement has also revived the concerns of some – on the left and, above all, on the right of the big liberal tent – who worry about the political price they could pay if they get too close to the New Democratic Party (NDP). Concerns that next week’s federal budget will now have to quickly allay.
The debate is eternal within the Liberal Party of Canada (PLC): how can we court the progressive orange vote of the NDP without losing that of the more center-right blue liberals at the hands of the conservative party? It continued under a resolutely progressive government of Justin Trudeau.
“Many see in this alliance with the NDP the consecration of the rupture of this more traditional alliance between the Liberal Party and the business community”, now observes a Liberal from the center right side of the party.
The budgetary question
None of the Liberals consulted this week had anything against the deal, which calls for the NDP to support the Liberal government on its budgets and in votes of confidence in exchange for progressive policies on health, the environment and reconciliation. The agreement, if it holds up, will provide the government with three years of stability, enough time to implement its election promises and allow voters to feel the benefits with dental insurance offered to the poorest or less expensive child care centers in English Canada.
But almost all of these Liberals have also insisted that their government must exercise fiscal discipline — notably in Minister Chrystia Freeland’s next budget, which will be presented on April 7.
“It’s up to the Minister to demonstrate that we have a plan to balance revenues and expenditures in a relatively short period of time,” said Ontario MPP John McKay. The return to a balanced budget will not happen in the next two years, he agrees, “but I think it is reasonable to expect the deficit to shrink”.
A speech more and more frequent in the liberal ranks. Especially since the Conservatives have been repeating for a week now that the “Liberal-NDP government” only wants to “spend lavishly”.
Even MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, among the most progressive in the Liberal caucus, takes it up. “All of this social progress is extremely important to me, but I’m also aware that it must be delivered in a way that is financially sustainable. However, he invites his colleagues not to worry too quickly. “These concerns are premature. We will have to carefully analyze the budget. Because the government should improve its defense spending there, “which is aimed at those who are generally described as blue liberals,” he recalls.
Ex-strategist Greg MacEachern also confirms that a “plan to return to balanced budgets in the budget would reassure many people” at the PLC.
The electoral impact
On the other side of the Liberal spectrum, a few elected officials who narrowly won their election against a rival NDP also expressed concern that the agreement with Jagmeet Singh’s party could threaten their re-election, reports MP McKay. Why hold your nose and vote Liberal if New Democrats can now have so much influence on the agenda of a minority government? they ask.
A concern especially mentioned in Ontario, where the NDP attracts more votes, recounts another elected official.
Of the 50 hardest-fought ridings last fall, 28 were won by a Liberal candidate. In 11 of them, the closest rival was NDP, and in the other 17, it was the Conservative who came second, according to Elections Canada data. Half of those close contests were in Ontario.
The deputy leader of the NDP, Alexandre Boulerice, is not convinced that his party will be able to take advantage of the agreement to the detriment of the Liberals in these ridings. The smaller party often comes out the loser in this kind of pact, and it is the government that usually ends up being rewarded by the voters, even if the policy implemented comes from the opposition partner.
Pollsters agree it’s far too early to predict the deal’s potential electoral impact. “This agreement could perhaps prevent strategic voting in the future,” however, indicates David Coletto of Abacus Data. The big promises of the NDP that were described as unrealistic by its rivals are now taken up by the government. “There is a risk in offering credibility to these New Democrat ideas. »
Mr. Coletto and the president of the Angus Reid Institute, Shachi Kurl, point out, however, that the elections are still far away, that it is not known who will lead the Conservative Party, or even the Liberal Party (although Mr. Trudeau assures us that he wants to stay in the saddle ), and that the specter of a Conservative victory still influences the strategic vote of New Democrat voters.
However, even among the Liberals who could be heated by the NDP, we want the government to distinguish itself from this rival by showing budgetary rigor. “I’m very left wing when it comes to social policy, but I’m also very clear about our duty to ensure economic growth. Our fiscal policy must be disciplined,” says Julie Dzerowicz, who won the closest LPC vs. NDP battle in the country by 76 votes in the Toronto riding of Davenport.
The LPC-NDP agreement currently receives a lot of support from both Liberal and New Democrat voters — 85% and 75%, respectively, according to Angus Reid. Justin Trudeau’s MPs are therefore likely to remain satisfied, as long as their constituents are too.
But in the center left as in the center right of the PLC, authorities are warned that in the longer term, in anticipation of an electoral prospect that will eventually catch up with them, the party must not become indistinguishable from the NPD.