The fall of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in voting intentions in favor of the Parti Québécois (PQ) continues, according to the most recent survey from Pallas Data, so much so that François Legault’s party now finds itself third – behind the PQ and the Liberal Party (PLQ).
According to the Toronto polling house, the PQ is once again at the top of voting intentions among decided voters, at 33%, or 10 points ahead of the PLQ, at 23%. The CAQ comes third at 20%, while Québec solidaire (QS) obtains 13% of support. The Conservative Party (PCQ) brings up the rear at 11%.
The wind blowing in the PQ’s sails does not seem to be fading. In the previous Pallas poll, in February, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s party received 31% of support, which means that it has gained two percentage points in two months. Conversely, the decline of the CAQ continues. The team has lost three points since February, and it finds itself in difficulty in the Montreal crowns, where it made significant gains during the 2022 election.
The surprise of this poll, however, comes from the PLQ, which comes second in voting intentions thanks to a jump of eight percentage points since February. For its part, QS is also losing weight to the PQ, as evidenced by its drop of four points since February.
This Pallas Data survey, carried out on April 20 and 21 with a random sample of 1,256 respondents, was commissioned by Qc125. The margin of error for the entire sample is ±3%, 19 times out of 20.
According to the analysis of Philippe J. Fournier, creator of Qc125, published in News, these results show the extent of the challenge facing the CAQ, since in addition to its often-mentioned setbacks in the Quebec region, the party is also in difficulty in the greater Montreal region and elsewhere in the province. In the metropolitan region, the CAQ collects 18%, and the PQ 30%. In the Capitale-Nationale, she obtained 16%, and the PCQ 30%. In the rest of Quebec, the CAQ is behind by 14 points and collects 24% of the votes, compared to 38% for the PQ.
Despite the Liberals’ significant jump (plus eight percentage points since February), Philippe J. Fournier emphasizes that “further probing will be necessary before determining whether this is an aberrant data.” It is, however, possible that the PQ’s frank assertion regarding its desire to hold a referendum on the independence of Quebec by 2030, if it takes power, could have the effect of strengthening the PLQ’s support. “However, it is important to emphasize that the PLQ risks plateauing if it does not manage to increase its support in the French-speaking majority, where it only obtains 10% of favor according to Pallas,” writes Mr. Fournier.
QS is also suffering from the rise of the PQ, according to the founder of Qc125. In addition, he notes, only 65% of QS voters in 2022 still support the party, while 30% of them have turned to the PQ.