Posted at 6:07 p.m.
Foreword
To try to measure the “St-Louis effect”, we compared his first six games as head coach of the Canadiens (3-3-0) to Dominique Ducharme’s last 11, from January 12 to February 8 (1 -7-3). We favored this period in order to quantify as best as possible the recovery (or not) of certain indicators.
A still fragile defense
Might as well say it right away: under Martin St-Louis, the Canadian has improved on almost every level. But that doesn’t mean he did it equally. In defence, for example, the number of shots allowed at five against five has remained in good shape, but the dangerousness has been reduced. Quality scoring chances are slightly less conceded, and the number of expected goals – those that “should” be allowed, according to statistical probabilities – has fallen slightly. However, it is not yet brilliant. With 11.87 chances given and 2.83 goals expected per 60 minutes, the Canadian ranks 24and and 28and NHL ranks, respectively, since Feb. 9, according to the Natural Stat Trick website. Expressed differently: the defense is still fragile.
The guards regroup
When defenders are vulnerable but success is there, it’s because someone compensated. And it is clear that the guards stop more pucks than before. In his last 11 games, Ducharme has only relied on Jake Allen for 17 minutes. In relief, Samuel Montembeault initially shone, but an injury then slowed him down. And the young Cayden Primeau, as we know, has lost all his bearings. He was then returned to the American League after just one start under St. Louis. Andrew Hammond arrived as reinforcements, and Montembeault regained form. The difference is staggering. With a similar number of expected goals, we allowed more than a goal and a half less per 60 minutes of play. And the save rate at 5 against 5 gained 4.4 percentage points. With all due respect to the new coach, his team receives quite a gift from his masked men.
The attack awakens
The attack is also doing much better under the leadership of St-Louis. Is this the result of better game readings or more efficient work in restricted areas, two key elements of the new administration? At five against five, the improvement is indisputable. We shoot more and we create more chances to score quality, but, above all, we take advantage of it. Only downside, and it is anecdotal: a number of goals scored higher than the number of goals expected testifies to some largesse from the opposing goalkeepers. But let the attackers get their due credit.
The numerical advantage in dry breakdown
As surprising as it may seem, the power play has run out of steam since the coaching change. While the massive attack unit looked good in the last miles of Dominique Ducharme (7 in 32, or 21.9%, in 11 games), it has been anemic since its dismissal. Only one goal, the very evening of the entry in scene of St-Louis, then nothing more. The Habs have squandered their 15 chances since. On the other hand, the numerical disadvantage is doing quite well, with a success rate of 83.3% (15 in 18) for 6 games.
Winners and losers
We would have to ask Kale Clague for his assessment of the change behind the bench. Because despite the fact that Ben Chiarot missed two games and despite the long-term absence of David Savard, the clumsy 23-year-old defender lost almost 3 minutes of ice time since Martin St-Louis took over. The club’s last four games correspond to its four weakest uses this season. With his simple, but effective and consistent game, Corey Schueneman fell in the eye of the new coach, who gave him about twenty minutes in the two games he played before contracting COVID-19. In attack, it is Cole Caufield who benefits the most from the new era: 2 min 51 s have been added to his workload. Nick Suzuki (+ 2 min 8 s) also took advantage. Conversely, Mike Hoffman (- 1 min 1 s), Ryan Poehling (- 1 min 59 s) and Joel Armia (- 2 min 8 s) are still trying to charm their boss.
Caufield at an unsustainable pace
The conclusion is unanimous: Cole Caufield is the Canadiens player who seems the most transformed by the arrival of Martin St-Louis. Witness his five goals and eight points in six games, two team highs. However, his number of shots per game (2.5) has been in good shape since the start of the season and his ice time, although increasing, does not alone justify his offensive explosion. We must therefore look at the qualitative side. The young man exudes confidence. He must not play in fear of making mistakes, his coach said. However, you might as well get used to the idea quickly: its frenetic pace will slow down. In the last 6 games, he has 1 goal for every 3 shots (5 for 15, or 33%), which is an anomaly, just like his starving 1.4% rate under Dominique Ducharme. For comparison purposes, since 2005-06, of the 443 30-goal performances in a full season in the NHL, only 15 have been achieved with a success rate greater than or equal to 20%, and none greater than 23.4%. .
The novelty effect
It’s not a myth: it is usual for a new head coach, after being hired, to enjoy a grace period of a few games. Martin St-Louis is no exception. His side have won three of the six games under his watch, compared to just one of the previous 14. The Press looked at the last 10 teams to have changed coaches during the season by comparing the six games before the personnel move to the six following – we deliberately excluded the dismissal of Joel Quenneville, whose dismissal in Florida had not no connection to team performance, but kept Paul Maurice, who resigned in Winnipeg. The verdict could not be clearer. Before the change of guard, we notice a compiled record of 15-36-9, or 39 points out of 120 (32.5%). After: 35-18-7, or 77 points out of 120 (64.2%). We can assume that the Canadian, who is just beginning his reconstruction, will not sail forever on the St-Louis effect. But it gives a smile, at least for a month, to players who needed it.