The Canadian | Seven factors of failure

The house is not yet on fire, but the blaze is certainly slumbering. The last correction suffered by the Canadian, in Seattle, brought his record to 1-6-0. Press takes a look today at seven elements that explain the club’s presence at the bottom of the Eastern Association.

Simon-Olivier Lorange
Press

Unreachable back of the net

The chorus is already repetitive, but it remains cruelly topical. With the exception of his 6-1 win over the Detroit Red Wings, the Canadian has been unable to score consistently. His six defeats all ended in a harvest of one goal or less (5 goals in 6 games). Even adding the six goals scored against the Wings, we find the team at 32^e and last in the league for the average goals per game, all circumstances combined (1.57). Insert here the empty phrase of your choice on the impossibility of winning matches without scoring goals.

No chances, no goals

When the offensive famine strikes, every player and coach in the known universe says it: by creating scoring chances, the puck will eventually get into the goal. However, statistics do not make CH players look good. According to calculations by the Natural Stat Trick (NST) site, the club appears at 25^e league rank for anticipated five-on-five goals (1.98 goals per 60 minutes played), and 28^e room for quality scoring chances (8.54 / 60 minutes). Expressed differently: it is not the opposing goalkeepers who deprive the Montreal strikers of goal. Rather, it is the latter who fail to give them an appreciable challenge.

Far from the disc

The Puck Possession Index, based on even-strength shooting attempts, is not a religion. The New York Islanders have been very successful in recent years finishing among the dunces in this regard, while the Canadian has had mixed results despite enviable numbers. On the other hand, in the case of the CH, an obvious change occurs this season. After finishing the last three campaigns among the top four teams on the circuit for puck possession, controlling more than 54% of five-on-five shooting attempts, Dominique Ducharme’s men have appeared in the middle of the field since the start of the calendar (50.6%, on the 14^e rank, according to NST). The dismantling of the trio of Phillip Danault, Tomas Tatar and Brendan Gallagher, dominant in this department, had an obvious effect, which rubs off on the scoring chances.

Painful in the circle

Among the reasons which logically explain the fall of the control of the puck of the Habs, there is, without a doubt, its failures in the face-off circle. Together, the blue, white and red center players only win 45.9% of their duels. While Christian Dvorak does a more than honest job (52.3%), the same cannot be said of his colleagues Jake Evans (48.2%) and Nick Suzuki (45.7%). In more limited roles, Mathieu Perreault is a nice surprise (59.3%), but the same cannot be said of Cédric Paquette (24.2%). Meanwhile, in Los Angeles, Phillip Danault has an efficiency of 55.4%. We say that, we say nothing.

Infamous special units

Already that it is not festive with five against five, the situation is downright catastrophic on the special teams. Tuesday in Seattle, the Canadian was for the first time perfect on the penalty kill, after allowing at least one goal in these circumstances in each of his first six games. The fact remains that its efficiency rate of 64% places it at the 29^e league rank. It’s even worse on the power play, a unit that was further silenced on Tuesday. With 8% success, we lag behind at 31^e echelon. The problems are multiple in the two special teams, but we cannot ignore, once again, the failures in the face-offs. Nick Suzuki on the power play: 25%. Jake Evans shorthanded 36.4%.

In front of the net

Since Jake Allen is practically the only viable option for CH in net, it’s not tempting to point the finger at him when looking for culprits for his club’s position in the standings. The reality, however, is that without being bad, Allen has so far been… okay. He didn’t undermine his team’s chances of victory, but he didn’t save them either. In three of the six games he has played, the number of goals he has allowed five-on-five has been lower than the number of anticipated goals compiled by the NST site – good news, in short. But the trend was the opposite in his three other meetings. In Seattle, he arguably had his worst performance yet. All situations combined, the Evolve Hockey site calculates that Allen should have allowed three fewer goals since the start of the season. Knowing how hard his teammates are to score, it suddenly takes on a lot of importance.

Silent cannons

Brendan Gallagher had two golden scoring chances against the Kraken. His first shot hit the goalkeeper, the second missed the target. Josh Anderson regularly overwhelms opposing defenders, but the puck ends its run in the corner of the ice. Nick Suzuki multiplies the feints, but struggles to shoot, which made his coach say that he seemed to want to “drop the puck himself in the back of the net”. Jeff Petry is no longer a shadow of himself, both offensively and defensively. So here are four pillars that are looking for each other, and not just a little. They have four assists and no goals – Petry has been shut out completely. Unsurprisingly, it isn’t much better elsewhere. On the fourth line, Artturi Lehkonen, Jake Evans and Cédric Paquette still have no point. Joel Armia has one. Expectations are high for Cole Caufield, but he still hasn’t scored either (he has an assist). The most optimistic will recall that all these beautiful people can only improve. It’s true. It still has to happen.

The Canadian was on training leave on Wednesday and will face the San Jose Sharks on Thursday night. The meeting will begin at 10:30 p.m. Quebec time. In addition, all the statistics for this analysis were collected before Wednesday’s games.