Five consecutive defeats, and the debate is revived.
For or against reconstruction?
It’s a popular strategy with many Canadiens fans. These fans want the club to trade their established players for first-round picks – ideally among the top 10 – and prospects. By snowball effect, the club will weaken, and thus obtain better draft picks. That way, in three years, the team will be competitive again.
Is this a realistic scenario?
In NHL 22, at the rookie level, maybe. But in the real National League? No.
First, a real reconstruction, it takes more than three years. Since the 2004 lockout, clubs that have employed this strategy have waited an average of six years between playoff appearances.
READ the column “The list of reconstructions”
The teams that have been most successful in rebuilding are those that won the lottery and got the first overall pick (Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Patrick Kane, Steven Stamkos). Otherwise, the results are mixed. Yes, the Los Angeles Kings won the Stanley Cup without winning the lottery. But the Buffalo Sabers, Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers stuck for a decade, and haven’t made it to the semifinals since.
In addition, the rules have changed for 20 years. When the Penguins, Blackhawks, Kings and Capitals began their rebuilding, from 2002 to 2004, the salary cap did not exist.
Today, not only does the ceiling exist, but in addition, it risks being frozen for several seasons. It becomes much more complicated for the Canadian to trade a veteran who earns 6 million per season for a 19-year-old pick or prospect.
Small demonstration: Friday, 16 of the 32 NHL teams reached the upper limit of the allowable payroll, if we exclude long-term injuries. Four others were approaching. The other 12? All candidates to miss the series. They therefore have no interest in exchanging their first choice, which risks ending up in the abacus for the lottery. Suddenly the possibilities are limited.
“When you talk about a player to another GM, explained Marc Bergevin Wednesday, the first question you will ask him is what is his contract. If you like the player, you say: I would like that, the fitter [dans mon alignement]. But there is not any fit. That’s why we see less and less [d’échanges]. ”
You will tell me that the Canadian can still trade a big contract for another big contract AND a choice / hope. As was the case in the transaction involving Max Pacioretty, Tomas Tatar, Nick Suzuki.
Yes. Absoutely. You are quite right. Except that these exchanges are the exception, not the norm.
In most cases, gifted young people are traded for other gifted young people. Patrik Laine against Pierre-Luc Dubois. Mikhail Sergachev versus Jonathan Drouin. Dylan Strome vs. Nick Schmaltz. And the first-round picks, against young veterans. At least, rarely against a 31-year-old defensive forward, or a 34-year-old attacking defender.
Here is the list of the main players traded for a first round pick for a year, and their ages at the time of the trade.
– Christian Dvorak, 25 years old
– Sam Reinhart, 25
– Anthony Mantha, 26
– Rasmus Ristolainen, 26 years old
– Conor Garland, 25, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, 30
– Seth Jones, 26
– Adam Boqvist, 20
– Darcy Kuemper, 30
– Kyle Palmieri, 30, and Travis Zajac, 35
– Nick Foligno, 33
– David Savard, 30 years old
Two trends:
1. The high number of players aged 25 and 26;
2. There are a few players 30 and over in the pool. They were traded to top NHL teams (Avalanche, Lightning, Maple Leafs, Islanders). The choices of the clubs are among the last of the first round. It is obviously more difficult to rebuild a franchise by acquiring the 31e choice in total rather than the 3e or the 5e.
If the Canadian were to rebuild, the best way to get a high pick or top prospect would be to let a young veteran go.
Who, at the Habs, is between 24 and 27 years old? Josh Anderson, Adam Brooks, Jonathan Drouin, Christian Dvorak, Jake Evans, Artturi Lehkonen, Samuel Montembeault and Sami Niku. Neither team will give up their first choice against Evans or Lehkonen. Against Drouin, if he maintains his production all season? May be. Anderson, despite his massive contract? May be. Dvorak? Surely.
But against an unprotected choice in the top 10 ?
No.
Among the older players, the Canadian has some attractive lures. Notably Jeff Petry, 33, and Tyler Toffoli, 29. Both would have a very good market value, even if Petry has a partial no-trade clause (15 teams), which would limit the possibilities of one-upmanship for the Habs. The other veterans in attack and defense (Brendan Gallagher, Ben Chiarot, Joel Edmundson, Brett Kulak, David Savard) would also find takers. But I doubt it’s against first-round picks, or against prospects that will be the heart of the team in five years.
Am I forgetting some?
Oh yes. The elephant in the room.
Carey Price.
It is the name most often mentioned in recent years among supporters of reconstruction. Notwithstanding the fact that the Canadiens star goalie has a complete no-move clause in his contract.
PHOTO DAVID BOILY, PRESS ARCHIVES
Carey Price
I emphasize this: Last summer, Price waived his special clause in order to be exposed to the expansion draft. The Seattle Kraken, which had plenty of room under the salary cap, ignored him.
I repeat: the Canadian gave it as a gift. Not against a first round pick. Not against a second round choice. Not even against a seventh round pick, or an Austrian League prospect. Free. The Kraken – who are not overwhelmed with talent – politely declined. Because with the early freeze on the salary cap, Price’s contract is undesirable.
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So, the reconstruction?
By going really deep, the Canadian could acquire three or four interesting prospects. There would however be a heavy consequence: a stay of several years in the cellar. To get by, scouts would have the obligation to hit the mark with each first round pick, and the pressure to find more nuggets in subsequent rounds.
It’s a big risk.
Too big a risk.
What’s the other option, then?
In the short and medium term, there are not a thousand solutions. Players in the current edition will need to produce to their full potential. As Marc Bergevin pointed out this week: “Replacing Shea Weber is not going to happen. The Islanders lost John Tavares. He’s a very good hockey player. They didn’t bring someone special. They found a way [de gagner]. I expect this [des joueurs]. They must find the solution to win [entre eux], in the locker room. ”
And in the long term? There is no secret. Marc Bergevin has an excellent success rate in his transactions. Now it’s up to the Canadiens’ amateur scouts to shine with their draft picks.