Do you think that Nick Suzuki does not look on his plate? You are not alone. Numbers confirm what your eyes see. In fact, they probably paint an even darker picture.
Needless to say, the loss of Cole Caufield alongside him will – sorry, already has – a major impact on his own season. However, things have not been going well for the captain for a long time.
The date of December 10, 2022 constituted, for the Canadian, a tipping point between a very drinkable campaign and an infernal slide.
The team was 13-11-2 with a .538 ranking point percentage. Since: 7-15-2 and .333. The day and the night.
Cause or consequence of this phenomenon, Suzuki experienced exactly the same curve. Until December 9, everything seemed to smile on him. His 29 points in 26 games placed him 30e NHL rank. What happened on the night of the 9th to the 10th? Only he knows. But since then, his production of 2 goals and 9 points in 25 games betrays a cruel breakdown.
Defensively, it doesn’t work either. His minus 17 is the worst of any forward on the league since Dec. 10. Let’s be a good player and remove the goals against an empty net from the calculation. Here it is at – 10. It’s not much hotter. At five against five, he found himself on the ice for twice as many opponent goals (20) as team goals (10).
This is not the first time that this state of affairs has been underlined, but the tipping point mentioned above corresponds roughly to the loss of Sean Monahan. He then held the position of second center, and his foot injury seems to have completely unbalanced the CH attack. Suzuki has taken on additional responsibilities and the so-called “deep” center players have each moved up a level. Without much success, it is necessary to specify.
New wingers
The loss of Caufield so far is even more painful for Suzuki, especially since it was preceded by the transfer of Kirby Dach to center. Number 14 therefore finds himself deprived of the two wingers with whom he has spent the majority of the season.
Prior to Caufield’s last game, Suzuki had spent 84% of his 5-on-5 ice time with him, and 63% with Dach.
In the last four meetings, Suzuki has mainly been flanked by Rem Pitlick and Josh Anderson. The experience, as well to put it coldly, is not positive. At all. At five-to-five, the trio were outscored 4-to-1 in goals (20%), 3-to-1 in expected goals (24.6%) and some 2-to-1 (31 .8%) for quality scoring chances, according to the specialized site Natural Stat Trick.
In defense of Suzuki and his trainer Martin St-Louis, there are few options for composing a decent first line. Of the few surviving wingers, no one has truly enjoyed a happy marriage with the captain so far this season.
For the reasons mentioned above, we must rely on a limited statistical sample for skaters who are not called Cole Caufield or Kirby Dach. Still five against five, only five wingers have played at least more than 25 minutes with Suzuki: Anderson (142), Pitlick (53), Mike Hoffman (39), Evgenii Dadonov (32) and Jesse Ylönen (29).
One thing applies to almost all of the team’s attackers except for Dach, Caufield and Monahan: their indicators are usually pulled down when they find themselves alongside Suzuki. After all, being promoted to a top line means facing high-quality opposition.
However, there are some that are less bad than others. Low-level click hatches would tell you that you will NEVER believe who it is.
Compromise
Unlike their colleagues, Hoffman and Ylönen offer relatively stable performance depending on whether they play with or without Suzuki. In some respects (puck possession, share of expected goals and quality scoring chances), they even make their captain more efficient – statistically, anyway.
For Anderson, Pitlick and Dadonov, it’s just the opposite. The numbers reveal that they are better without Suzuki and Suzuki is better without them. The same could be said for Jonathan Drouin and Joel Armia, who are expected to return to action soon.
We can also wonder if Suzuki is dragging an injury or if he is suffering from the effects of fatigue. As of the start of 2023, he’s the third most-used forward in the NHL – averaging 22:40 per game. No one, not even in defense, plays more than him with the Habs.
The captain was thus granted training leave recently. As was the case at the end of last season. We later learned that he was suffering from a back injury.
This Tuesday evening, after his game against the Ottawa Senators, the Canadiens will be on leave for 10 days. This break will come at the right time for such a battered group.
Nick Suzuki will travel to Florida to participate in the All-Star Game. An opportunity, in a way, to remember that despite the setbacks of his team, he remains his main pillar.