The thaw was revealed slowly, over eight hours of interminable vote counting. But the verdict of this crushing Liberal defeat in Toronto–St. Paul’s, once it fell in the early morning, was no less brutal. The red fortress of the greater Queen City region has just been shaken to its core. A first conservative victory in Toronto in almost 15 years, which reinforces the stealth offensive of leader Pierre Poilievre and threatens to sound, this time, the death knell for Justin Trudeau’s leadership. Enough to make the electorate think.
The setback, confirming months of unfavorable polls, is disconcerting for the liberals. Toronto–St. Paul’s, one of their biggest strongholds (the constituency had been won by majorities ranging between 24% and 38% for 30 years), had even resisted the collapse of 2011. The barbican gave way on Monday. Conservative candidate Don Stewart was 1.6% ahead of Liberal Leslie Church, who was trying to succeed former minister Carolyn Bennett, who bowed out after 26 years.
The Liberals had nevertheless dispatched Mr. Trudeau himself, as well as a dozen ministers, to campaign there. Then dozens of employees to encourage voters to vote. In vain. If so much effort was not enough, it is enough to say the defeat that increasingly anxious elected officials will fear. Because a general election result like that of this by-election could cost them 55 of the 75 seats they hold in Ontario, predicts pollster David Coletto, of the firm Abacus.
Liberal and Trudeauist fatigue is such that the party is even more unpopular than Stephen Harper’s conservatives were 16 months before the 2015 elections, which marked the end of their reign, the pollster further observes.
Although Justin Trudeau has so far had free rein to decide his future alone, the confidence and patience of his troops could end up crumbling. However, none of his possible successors seems to appeal to voters more than him, revealed a survey by Angus Reid. Logic does not always trump political panic, however.
The course of electoral cycles tends to serve a healthy alternation of governance. A complementary election also offers the audacity to send a warning without fear of immediate repercussions. That of Toronto–St. Paul’s was no exception, denouncing the lack of housing, the cost of living and the liberal response to the war between Israel and Hamas, the constituency with the fifth largest Jewish population.
The protest vote therefore almost entirely converged towards the Conservative Party. The New Democrats, closely linked to the fate of the Liberals by virtue of their agreement which they have still not renounced, also posted their worst result in 30 years, confirming the drift of the party under the leadership of Jagmeet Singh.
Any alternative to political usury, however, is not without risk. And the Conservative offer remains worrying in terms of the environment, repressive public security, budget cuts and social policies. The party is heading towards a supermajority worthy of that of Brian Mulroney in 1984, but today’s Conservative movement bears almost no resemblance. The progressive movement is on the margins – not to say in exile – just like the hand once extended to Quebec values.
This surprise victory in Toronto will perhaps force Pierre Poilievre to stop running around to support his political proposal once and for all. However, it is not said that these details, if they come, will be reassuring.
Justin Trudeau’s plea to cling to power, insisting that he wants to protect his progressive legacy from the specter of a Poilievre government, is on the other hand no more convincing. In an interview with the CBC network last week, the Prime Minister found nothing better to offer to justify the hope of an exceptional fourth mandate than to want to “continue”.
However, this path taken for almost nine years no longer appeals to voters. It also took shape in the Commons this spring, mainly responding to the demands of the New Democrats, the thin legislative agenda having otherwise left the impression of a government running out of steam.
It is only in Quebec that Mr. Trudeau can still hope for a lifeline. But here too it will be necessary to propose new avenues, moving away – hopefully for good – from repeated interference.
Quebecers and Canadians deserve the change they are demanding. It is up to Justin Trudeau to quickly convince them that this renewal can take place under the Liberal banner. And to convince his troops to accept that he remains its standard bearer. Otherwise, Canadian voters could well follow in the footsteps of their fellow Torontonians.