(Ottawa) The federal government will have to decide in the coming weeks whether it gives in to the Bloc Québécois’ ultimatum, which is demanding “the irreversible implementation” of two of its bills by October 29.
By rejecting these requests, he could lose the support of the Bloc during the next votes of censure presented in the House of Commons.
The first of the two legislative proposals from Yves-François Blanchet’s party aims to increase the pension of seniors aged 65 to 74 to the level of those paid to those aged 75 and over while the other aims to exclude the management of the offer of any future negotiations of a commercial nature.
If the government accepts them, it risks undermining its own political and fiscal programs.
The government is trying to put in place a political strategy aimed at satisfying members of generations Y and Z who believe they will not be rewarded for their work as those who preceded them were. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau even speaks of “fair opportunity for every generation”.
Andrew Perez, a liberal strategist with Perez Strategies, questions the political benefits the government could gain from a pension hike.
“I don’t clearly see the political advantages that Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals would obtain if they spent even more money on seniors,” he says.
Seniors seem to be the only segment of voters among whom the Liberals are still competitive, adds Mr. Perez.
Young voters who greatly contributed to electing Justin Trudeau in 2015 appear to have moved to the right of the political spectrum. Polls indicate that a majority of them support Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.
“Historically, liberals always outstrip conservatives among younger generations. For liberals, seeing this data is heresy,” underlines Mr. Perez.
Tyler Meredith, a former economist advisor to Justin Trudeau and two finance ministers, agrees that it would be difficult for a political party to oppose giving more money to seniors.
“The problem would be to implement such a measure. And its cost,” he mentions.
According to the Parliamentary Budget Officer, increasing the amount of pensions for seniors under the age of 75 would cost $16 billion over the next five years.
Mr. Meredith judges that it will be difficult for the government to add this amount to the expenses they plan to make in various sectors such as housing.
“I’m not saying it’s necessary just from an intergenerational point of view, but I’m not sure it’s the most efficient way to spend. »
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland had promised to adopt safeguards to limit spending and the deficit. She indicated last week that discussions with the Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party (NDP) on new aid measures for seniors were fruitful.
PHOTO SPENCER COLBY, CANADIAN PRESS ARCHIVES
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland
The Canada Pension Plan is one of the federal government’s largest expenditures. In 2022, it had spent nearly 70 billion on Old Age Security, the Guaranteed Income Supplement and the Spouse’s Allowance.
In July 2022, the Old Age Security pension was permanently increased by 10% for people aged 75 or older.
The Bloc Québécois considers that this measure was discriminatory.
Stephen Gordon, director of the Department of Economics at Laval University, does not agree. According to him, it is the oldest seniors who most often find themselves in need.
“When you are over 75, there is less chance that you will be able to work to increase your income,” he emphasizes. He adds that older people also spent more of their savings.
Spending more money on seniors should not be at the top of the government’s list of priorities, Professor Gordon believes. He also observes that the poverty rate is lower among this age group.
“We have to think about all the other priorities: housing, education, health, oh heaven! Health! Seniors are at the bottom of the priorities. The federal government’s finances are becoming increasingly difficult. »
According to Statistics Canada, the poverty rate among people aged 65 and over stood at 6% in 2022, 3.9 percentage points lower than the national average.
The Liberal government does not have much time to think about its choices. In addition to the Bloc Québécois’ ultimatum, he must table his fall economic statement which will reveal the broad outlines of his upcoming spending.
The House of Commons is also expected to consider other motions of no confidence in the government in the coming weeks.