With its newly found negotiating levers following the divorce between the Liberal minority government and the New Democrats, the Bloc Québécois wanted to bet big. Leader Yves-François Blanchet tried everything, by trading off his support for Justin Trudeau at the cost of the final adoption of two Bloc bills. The bet was simple: the Bloc would win or Prime Minister Trudeau would disappoint farmers and seniors.
A third possibility, however, seems to have been overlooked. Either the Bloc ultimatum is simply ignored and the Bloc’s room for maneuver proves to be very short-lived.
Yves-François Blanchet made aid to retirees and protection of supply management conditions sine qua non to the survival, thanks to its troops, of the Trudeau government. Several senators, however, are resistant to Bill C-282, which would exclude supply management from any future international trade negotiations. And above all, the government has just refused to grant the essential royal recommendation for the adoption of C-319, which aims to increase the Old Age Security pension by 10% for seniors aged 65 to 74. .
Liberal elected officials do not appreciate the Bloc ultimatum nor the $16 billion bill over five years attached to the bill. For a government which hopes to convince its remaining voters that it will now be able to demonstrate fiscal responsibility – and which is striving to reconnect with the young adults who have deserted it – the Bloc’s proposal is not very attractive. Especially since it is imperfect.
The criticisms are not just ideological. English Canada was obviously indignant to see the federal government negotiate its future with a sovereignist party, thus ostensibly exhibiting its selective memory. Stephen Harper’s minority Conservative government did not arouse such ire by acquiescing for four and a half years, to remain in power, to certain demands, also from the Bloc.
However, the seniors assistance bill also leaves economists skeptical. And not just in English Canada.
These experts see it as a poorly targeted proposal, coming to the aid of a generation which, overall, needs it less than the youngest, who will inherit the bill, aid to the elderly already encompassing the largest share of federal spending ($81 billion this year, $100 billion in 2028). The cohort aged 65 and over, which brought together 7.2 million Canadians last year, will also grow by 36% by 2035, to 9.8 million people.
The Bloc Québécois responds that it wants to correct the inequity created by the Liberals, who only improved Old Age Security for those aged 75 and over two years ago. But the youngest retirees receive a higher average income — $5,300 more per year than those aged 75 to 84, and $7,900 more than seniors over 85.
However, Mr. Blanchet is inexorable and says he is open to “zero” compromise. Neither in form, if it is not through its own legislative initiative, nor in substance, if the aid is more circumscribed.
However, the other part of his bill, the one which modifies the guaranteed income supplement to broaden the support offered to the most disadvantaged seniors by increasing the employment earnings exemption, has more consensus. Including within the government, which sees this as better targeted and, above all, less costly aid ($768 million over five years). Mr. Blanchet nevertheless refuses to accept “a small gain”, demanding to achieve nothing other than “THE gain”.
The choice of priority is surprising. Demanding full immigration powers or a halving of arrivals of asylum seekers would have been wasted effort. But focusing on supply management and benefits for seniors earned the Bloc leader an embarrassing disavowal — to different degrees and for divergent reasons — from both the CAQ Prime Minister, François Legault, and the leader of the Parti Québécois , Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. Especially since the recommended strategy may not result in a victory.
By becoming intractable, Mr. Blanchet is heading straight towards an impasse. The New Democratic leader, Jagmeet Singh, would have no problem pushing back the electoral deadline and supporting a smaller increase in assistance for seniors which would be provided for in the fall economic statement. The NDP has never had such scruples about extracting successive gains from governments.
The Bloc Québécois, on the other hand, is missing the opportunity to win one in turn. And to deprive yourself of a few more months of precious negotiating room.
The electoral prospects for the Bloc and Mr. Blanchet are promising. However, those of extracting tangible gains from the Trudeau government, in the interest of Quebec and Quebecers, were just as important.