The battle for the conquest of Donbass, the “main objective” of the Russians in Ukraine, has begun. Thousands of soldiers came as reinforcements on Monday assailed towns in western Ukraine, while the strategic port of Mariupol seems to have fallen into the hands of the occupiers.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky himself announced the opening of this new chapter in the war on Monday evening during an official speech. “We can now say that Russian troops have started the battle for Donbass, which they have been preparing for for a long time. A very large part of the entire Russian army is now devoted to this offensive. No matter how many Russian soldiers are brought here, we will fight. We will defend ourselves. »
No less than 11 new Russian battalions, each comprising 1,000 men, have joined the troops already massed on the eastern front, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Monday. These reinforcements bring the total number of Russian battalions ready to invade Donbass to 76. No information has filtered about the Ukrainian forces present.
We can expect “fights of iron and fire”, says the To have to the president of the Military Institute of Quebec, Richard Giguère, since the takeover of this region remains the “main objective” of the Kremlin. “There are masses of tanks, masses of infantry, supported by helicopters, supported by fighters. […] The last time we saw that was during the Second World War. »
Because, facing the Russians, the Ukrainian army is not left out. Despite human losses estimated at 3,000 soldiers by President Zelensky, the thousands of remaining soldiers can count on cannons, drones and other mechanical devices freshly landed from the United States. The first shipments of the latest tranche of US military aid have indeed already arrived at the country’s borders, a senior Pentagon official confirmed on Monday. “Four flights arrived in the region from the United States yesterday, with various equipment,” said the official, who requested anonymity. A fifth flight is expected to arrive within the next 24 hours, “which will make five flights in as many days. »
Already, the fighting was raging on Monday. “It’s hell,” said Ukrainian governor of the Luhansk region, Sergei Gaïdaï, on Facebook. The offensive has begun, the one we’ve been talking about for weeks. There is fighting in Rubizhne and Popasna, incessant fighting in other peaceful towns. »
This major Russian offensive may actually have started a little earlier than Monday.
The sirens of the air raid warning system ripped through the Ukrainian air across the country all weekend. Between Sunday and Monday, Russia conducted about 200 aerial sorties in the country, according to senior US defense officials.
“Ukraine is being hit by the most intensive missile attacks from the Russian Federation in weeks,” the European Union’s diplomatic corps confirmed in a statement on Monday.
“Powerful” Russian strikes notably reached Lviv, the large city in western Ukraine and usually relatively spared from the fighting, local authorities said.
This shelling far from the trenches looks like a diversionary tactic on the part of the Russians, according to Richard Giguère, who sees it as a strategy to dilute the Ukrainian forces. “When we concentrate our forces in the East and depopulate the other territories, but these other territories are bombed, that makes us hesitate a little, he observes. Before taking a tactical group from Lviv and sending it to the East, we will think about it. »
The port of Mariupol, another key element of the Russian conquest, was “probably taken” on Saturday by Vladimir Putin’s troops “despite the denials of the Ukrainian general staff”, according to the American Institute for the Study of war (ISW).
The last defenders are still holding out, against all odds, in the city’s metallurgical complex. According to the ISW, groups of Ukrainians are likely to remain active there, but will only last a few days, probably after a deluge of fire.
pockets of resistance
This stranglehold could prove valuable for the Russians, as a victory in Mariupol would free up 12 tactical battalions capable of fighting in other parts of the country, according to a senior US defense official.
But the Russian soldiers have no choice but to eradicate all “pockets of resistance” before being able to join the rest of the troops, according to Richard Giguère, to avoid exposing their rear. “It will be extremely expensive for the Russians,” he says. Fighting in cities is the most expensive in terms of casualties, supplies, use of weapons. This is the hardest part for the attacking forces. It might last a long time. [Les Ukrainiens] can hold out for a very long time, but on condition that they are supplied with weapons, food, water and medical care. »
The capture of Donbass or Mariupol will therefore not mean the end of the war, predicts Richard Giguère, because “the Ukrainians will never agree to give up ground like that”. Skirmishes and counter-insurrections are likely to agitate these territories for a long time, so that there will be no “obvious victories”. It is thus a safe bet that “in the end, there will be no winner, on one side or the other”, estimates the expert in residence at Laval University.