The Banque de France will revise its growth forecast slightly upwards for 2024

An increase that may be minimal but which is maintained in a context marked by uncertainty. The governor of the Bank of France puts forward two reasons, the fall in the inflation rate and the success of the Olympic Games.

Central Bank Governor François Villeroy de Galhau told the magazine: The Point, Wednesday, September 4, that the Banque de France forecasts a better growth rate than expected in 2024, without going into details. The official figure will be announced in mid-September.

He anticipates and explains the institution’s very probable decision with two reassuring pieces of news: the decline in inflation and the success of the Olympic Games. We are still waiting for the study of the concrete impact of the Olympic Games on overall activity. As for inflation, it has just fallen below 2% for the first time since 2021, compared to 7% a year ago at the same time, which was expected thanks to the decline in energy prices. This drop in inflation will allow for gains in purchasing power, but also a drop in interest rates. A drop in rates favorable to business investment.

In June, the Banque de France was counting on a 0.8% increase in GDP for the year 2024. This increase could ultimately be 0.9 or 1%, as the government predicts. However small it may be, any gain is good to take. It should be noted that 1% more GDP represents between 28 and 30 billion euros gained by our economy. This is appreciable in this period when there is a lot of talk about deficit.

In this magazine interview The Pointthe governor of the Bank of France nevertheless explains that “two shocks of confidence” weigh on these prospects. François Villeroy de Galhau cites two elements that are recurring in all the comments at the moment: the gap in interest rates that are increasingly favorable to Germany and, of course, the political uncertainties in France that are distracting entrepreneurs from their investment and hiring plans. But, without declaring victory, the figures expected for mid-September will show that France has managed to escape recession. So many reasons for satisfaction, even if we can, and must, always do better.