According to a survey of thousands of companies, the latter remain relatively confident about their level of activity.
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The French economy could finally see a “very slight increase” of its GDP in the fourth quarter and not stagnation as initially expected, assured the Banque de France on Wednesday, November 9, insisting however on the “very high uncertainty” related to the international context.
“In a very uncertain environment, but given this uncertainty today (…), we expect a very slight increase in GDP in the fourth quarter”said Olivier Garnier, Director General of Statistics, Studies and International at the Banque de France.
“At this stage (…) we are leaning more towards the side of a small positive hazard compared to our initial forecast of zero growth in the fourth quarter”, he added during a presentation, without however quantifying this new forecast. According to him, the geopolitical situation but also the impact of the weather on energy supplies pose many uncertainties on growth.
However, according to the monthly business survey conducted among companies, the latter remain relatively confident about their level of activity. “Activity continues to show resilience in October and companies expect in November (…) a small increase in their activity, with in the case of construction a stability rather than an increase”explained Olivier Garnier, recalling the three phases anticipated by the Banque de France for French growth: “resilience, slowdown and recovery in 2024”.
Company order books remain “well stocked”but recruitment difficulties, if they “no longer increase”, are also important. However, the Banque de France warns of cash flow difficulties, particularly for industrial companies, “with a deterioration that is confirmed”.