With the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, Europe, stuck between the two superpowers (United States and USSR), breathed a sigh of relief… and worked to reduce its military resources. Thirty years later, the time of awakening has come and the signs of remilitarization are undeniable.
Starting with expenses. From just over 170 billion euros at the bottom of the wave in 2014, the sums devoted to the defense budgets of members of the European Union have increased to 240 billion euros in 2022. A recent estimate indicates that they would cross the threshold of 350 billion euros in 2024.
Examples ?
In 2022, Germany announced the release of 100 billion euros to modernize its army.
The Netherlands is considering reactivating a military air base closed in 1993 and has just placed an order for 5.65 billion euros with the French company Naval Group to replace its four old submarines with a traditional version (not nuclear) of the Barracuda.
In Denmark, there are plans to include women in conscription.
And on March 22, Germany and France announced a working partnership to design a next-generation tank.
On March 5, 2024, the European Commission (EC) also unveiled a new strategy aimed at revitalizing its military industries and accelerating the production of weapons and equipment. This European Defense Industry Program (EDIP) aims as much to accelerate the sending of weapons to Ukraine as to replenish the stocks of the Twenty-Seven with group purchases. In a first breath, more than 500 million euros will be invested in the European arms industries.
“We must boost our defense industrial capacity over the next five years,” said the President of the EC, Ursula von der Leyen.
Some will say it’s about time! Europe was harshly confronted with the dwindling of its stocks after promising to deliver 1 million 155 mm shells to Ukraine in 12 months, a target achieved by… 52%.
A European army?
The most recent event to wake up Europe is Donald Trump’s declaration that if he became president of the United States again, he would let Russia invade NATO countries whose defense budgets do not reach 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP). Hello atmosphere!
This 2% rule was adopted in 2014. However, in 2024, 18 of the 31 member countries will cross this milestone. Sweden, which has just been added and constitutes the 32e member of the alliance, promises to achieve this goal very soon.
INFOGRAPHICS THE PRESS
Aside from the outcry it aroused, Mr. Trump’s statement reminds us that many American politicians, especially in Republican ranks, want a return to isolationism. Faced with this observation, Europeans must evaluate whether they accelerate the remilitarization of the continent within NATO, in a new structure or even within a European army.
For many, this last idea makes no sense. For example, Ron Huebert, professor in the political science department at the University of Calgary, believes that Europe will renew itself within NATO.
The idea of a European army was already in the air in the 1950s with the rise of the Soviet threat. But already, we were wondering how to control such a creature. It’s easy to say that we will create a unified army, but we must ask ourselves if the participating nations will be ready to relinquish control of their own army to a neighboring nation.
Ron Huebert, professor in the political science department at the University of Calgary
The recent declaration by French President Emmanuel Macron, according to which he did not rule out sending ground troops to Ukraine, very quickly rejected by his German counterpart, Olaf Scholz, illustrates this difficulty for heads of state to abandon their leadership. to the neighbor.
Additionally, a “European army” would have to find common ground with the United Kingdom, which withdrew from the European Union (Brexit) on January 31, 2020. While the two entities work together within NATO.
Military personnel
Furthermore, the effort to upgrade European armies must take into account a non-controllable value: military personnel.
“Putting money on the table does not mean that people will come, especially in the current economic context of full employment,” says Stéfanie von Hlatky, associate professor of political science at Queen’s University in Kingston, and holder of the Canada Research Chair in Gender, Security and the Armed Forces.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on recruitment and retention efforts, she continues. “This has created major delays in the training of recruits, with a lag effect in the recruitment system. If we cannot immediately train recruits, we cannot make places for new ones. »
Finally, the researcher emphasizes, like several experts, that the awakening of Europe does not date from 2022 or from Donald Trump’s declaration. A first observation was made in 2014 with the capture of Crimea by Russia. The events of the last two years nevertheless served as a catalyst.
PHOTO RONNY HARTMANN, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE ARCHIVES
Military vehicles of the Czech Army board a German M3 ferry to cross the Elbe River during the international military exercise “Wettiner Schwert 2024” in Hohengoehren, eastern Germany, March 26, 2024 .
“The nations on NATO’s eastern flank, closer to Russia, are and will be the first to rebuild their defenses,” said Ron Huebert.
Is there not a risk that Russia will see these initiatives as a provocation? “For years, any military initiative by Europe has been described as a provocation by the Russians,” replies Mr. Huebert. It has become a standard. »
Sources: The echoes, The Great Continent, Point, The Guardian, The world, Defense News, Euronewsnato.int, International mail, Release, Humanity