Quebec admits it right away: its regulations aimed at stimulating the electrification of transportation will not result in any increase in the number of electric vehicles on the roads of the province. At this rate, it already seems certain that Quebec will not achieve its objective of reducing its polluting emissions by 37.5% by 2030, simply because of this laxity in the electrification of road vehicles.
As we know, at 43% of its total emissions, the transportation sector is the main emitter of greenhouse gases in the province. Road transport accounts for 80% of this proportion. Cars and SUVs make up the majority of vehicles on the road in Quebec. This is why experts generally agree that the most direct way for Quebec to reduce its total GHG emissions is to target automobile transportation.
However, according to the analysis published at the end of January by the Ministry of the Environment of its own standard on zero-emission vehicles (ZEV), emissions from the Quebec transport sector will be only 13% lower in 2030 compared to their reference threshold, i.e. that of 1990 GHG emissions.
“What this means is that, to achieve its climate target, Quebec will have to require other economic sectors to reduce their own GHG emissions by almost 100%, which of course seems impossible under the conditions current events,” summarizes Équiterre’s director of government relations, Marc-André Viau. The most cynical will say that this is nothing new: to date, Canada and Quebec have not achieved any of the climate targets they have set.
Eternal optimist, Équiterre publishes modifications to the ZEV standard on Monday that it recommends to the government if it wishes for once to achieve its climate targets. Among them: bring forward to 2030 rather than 2035 the prohibition for large manufacturers to sell gasoline-powered cars and SUVs in the province. The environmental organization believes that it would also be wiser for the binding measures contained in the draft ZEV standard to be applied from 2025 rather than 2029.
Outsmarting the “bluff”
If, on the one hand, the environmental groups criticize the government for its timidity in the climate fight, on the other, the tradesmen of the automobile sector judge on the contrary that it already asks too much of them.
In the revision of its ZEV standard, Quebec effectively tightens certain provisions that specifically target new vehicle dealers. A credit mechanism already in place for a few years and which aims to encourage the sale of fully or partially electrified vehicles – this includes vehicles with plug-in hybrid engines – will be more severe from 2029. This raises fears for the Corporation des Automobile Dealers of Quebec (CCAQ) the departure of certain automakers from the province who have not been able to make their own electric switch in time.
Some automotive groups are still reluctant today to consider removing internal combustion engines from their catalogs. This is the case of the Japanese group Mazda, in particular, which remains very present in Quebec. Porsche, until recently, even offered to invest in carbon-neutral fuels produced from biomass and wind energy, for example.
But from there to seeing automotive brands leave Quebec, there is a step that Équiterre does not cross, which does not believe in this bluff of the automotive sector. “I don’t see any trader going to refuse to sell electric vehicles, especially since they are sold at a better price and they generate a better profit margin,” says Marc-André Viau, who recalls having heard the same threats during the 2008 financial crisis.
I don’t see any trader going to refuse to sell electric vehicles, especially since they are sold at a better price and have a better profit margin.
A transition to continue
The war in Ukraine adds new pressure on the global energy sector. In Canada, several groups argue these days that it would be beneficial for the country’s economy and security to back down on climate targets in order to reinvest more massively in the production and export of Canadian oil.
Like the pandemic over the past two years, geopolitical news should not be used as an excuse to give up, insists Équiterre. “On the contrary, it may be the best time to [accélérer] the transition [vers la décarbonation de l’économie] adds Marc-André Viau. “It will take away a source of funding for this war. »
Unsurprisingly, the Équiterre spokesperson believes that the government should be even tougher on the transportation and energy sectors. “Basically, what the industry is asking for is just to have a little more predictability. »