the attack on energy infrastructure reflects the “military incapacity” of the Russians “to break through on the front”, estimates Guillaume Ancel

Russia launched a new salvo of missiles and drones at Ukraine on Saturday, damaging energy installations in the southeast and west of the country.

The attack by the Russian army, launched on the night of Friday June 21 to Saturday June 22 on energy infrastructure, reflects the “military incapacity” of the Russians “to pierce on the forehead”analyzed on franceinfo Guillaume Ancel, former French officer and writer. “Ukrenergo facilities [opérateur ukrainien] in the regions of Zaporizhia (south) and Lviv (west) were damaged”said the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy.

Russians “suffered enormous losses trying to penetrate the front”recalls Guillaume Ancel.
But the former officer points “a failure” of the Russian army. Russians “have fewer and fewer resources available”while the Ukrainians “are getting stronger from week to week, in particular thanks to the mobilization of Europeans”.

franceinfo: How do you explain this choice by the Russians to target these energy infrastructures?

Guillaume Ancel: Clearly, it is to weaken Ukraine. This is not a recent practice on the part of the Russians, but it also reflects their military inability to break through on the front. For nine months, they have put absolute pressure and suffered enormous losses to try to penetrate the front which is 1,100 kilometers long. And they absolutely can’t do it. However, here we are at a time when, on the contrary, the Ukrainian army is strengthening due to deliveries of American and European weapons and the probable entry into service in the coming weeks of the famous F-16s.

“The Russians are trying to gain an advantage, probably to be able to negotiate and weaken Ukraine, to show it that it is in its interest to stop this war which the Russians, however, cannot win either.”

Guillaume Ancel, former officer

at franceinfo

Does targeting power plants change the situation from a military point of view for the Ukrainian army, or is it mainly targeting the morale of the Ukrainians?

Targeting energy infrastructure is above all, of course, targeting the morale of the population who have been suffering the war started by Russia for two years and five months now. Therefore for them, to have incessant power cuts, it is also the feeling that it is extremely difficult to defend. Because as anti-aircraft defense has focused on large urban centers, we cannot protect all electrical installations. Now, it is thermal power plants or nuclear power plants that are targeted. So the Ukrainians do not have the means to prevent the Russians from striking daily. At the same time, the Russian army also strikes civilian and military targets every day. So, beyond the energy installations, they cause between ten and 50 deaths every day.

There has been a lot of talk since the start of the war about the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, with fears of extremely serious consequences. Is everything being done to prevent anyone from wanting to come to this?

Nuclear maintenance specialists are unanimous on the fact that we are absolutely not in the case of Chernobyl. Because the reactors have been shut down and consequently there is no risk of a meltdown of one of the reactors as was the case at Chernobyl, which almost became an even more serious disaster than the one that occurred. was actually. This is not the case for Zaporizhia. On the other hand, this could of course contaminate the surrounding region, but in a very small way compared to what we experienced in the Chernobyl disaster. And above all, there is no risk of nuclear meltdown or a reactor going into overdrive. So the risk is very different. It is also quite psychological. We can clearly see that when we talk about Zaporizhia, everyone is of course referring to the Chernobyl disaster which also took place in Ukraine.

On the front, the Russians claim the capture of certain localities. The leaders of the Ukrainian army recognize that the situation is very difficult for their troops. Should this be put into perspective?

Rather, it is a failure of the Russian army. Because the outbreak of the war in Gaza allowed the Russians to release American aid which practically ceased from the beginning of October for the Ukrainians. The Russians had a very prosperous period where they were the ones who took back the initiative on the battlefield and they tried massively to break through. But in doing this, they suffered enormous losses, so significant that they were unable to renew the equipment they lost on the front. And so their abilities diminish.

In fact, today the front is shifting. That is to say, the Russians still have the initiative, but have fewer and fewer resources available. And the Ukrainians are getting stronger from week to week, in particular thanks to the mobilization of the Europeans, who have said little about it, but who went to buy on the international market the ammunition that the Ukrainians lacked. And when the Ukrainians hit the F-16s, it is likely that they will launch limited offensives, but extremely difficult for the Russian army to oppose. This summer we will see a front which will be under great tension due to these Ukrainian operations.