The assault of the Russian army on Tuesday May 3 on the Azovstal steelworks, the last pocket of Ukrainian resistance in the strategic port of Mariupol, “going to be a disaster”predicted Tuesday on franceinfo, General Dominique Trinquand, military expert and former head of the French military mission to the UN in New York.
franceinfo: What types of combat should we expect on the Ukrainian site of Azovstal?
Dominique Trinquand: It’s going to be a disaster. It’s like a street fight, except there’s no sky above. They’re in tunnels, so there’s probably a lot of traps that have been set, firing ranges that have been set up. But in the end, the mass of explosives, even bombardments, which will be implemented by the Russian army and the mass of men who can attack several places at the same time are likely to be extremely trying for the Ukrainians . Now this type of fight can last, and much depends on the ammunition, water and food that the Ukrainians still have.
Vladimir Poutine had however given the order to create a kind of hermetic belt around Azovstal. Why did he change his mind in your opinion?
This assault is indeed quite surprising. We know that this will cost the Russian army a lot of losses, because the Ukrainians have been preparing the defense of the complex perfectly for two months, and it is extremely easy to defend and therefore very difficult to attack. But I’m afraid that’s the only victory President Putin can announce on May 9. [date de commémoration de la victoire de l’armée russe sur l’Allemagne nazie], because there is little chance that there will be a victory in the Donbass. On the other hand, in Mariupol, there was a choice: wait and bring down the city, but probably within a week or two, or attack now. The choice was made to attack.
How to imagine new evacuations of civilians from Mariupol, in these conditions of assault on Azovstal?
The evacuation that was successful today is probably the result of UN negotiations, during Secretary General Antonio Guterres’ visit to Moscow. But it seems difficult, now that the Russians have stormed, to evacuate any more civilians. In Russian propaganda, it will say that the Azov battalion used human shields.
This war has been going on for more than two months now. Should we expect an extremely long conflict?
I think it’s going to be extremely long for two reasons. First, because the Russians do not win easily as they thought. But they won’t let go. Then, because the Westerners are extremely strengthening the Ukrainians. The American Minister of Defense has somewhat revealed his strategy, which is to weaken Russia. So in a way, by supplying arms and with the blood of Ukrainians, the Americans want to weaken Russia. This war will therefore last for several more months.