After months of suspense, Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has cleared the way for a snap election on July 4. After 14 years in opposition, Labour could emerge as the clear winner.
Towards a new era in the United Kingdom? Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has announced early general elections, scheduled for Thursday, July 4. After fourteen years of rule, the Tories seem out of breath and unable to stop their fall in popularity in the polls. On the other side, Labour is the favorite. Its leader, Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer, appears to be the likely future head of government. Franceinfo takes stock.
Why is the election being held now?
Parliamentary elections – or general elections – must be held within five years of the first day of a legislature. The last election was in December 2019, so the next election could not be held after 28 January 2025, according to the think tank UK in a Changing Europe. (PDF link). While a vote was expected for the end of the year, Rishi Sunak took everyone by surprise by announcing early elections on July 4. The pressure on the head of government had increased in the face of poor polls and multiple calls from the opposition to call elections.
“Since the economic situation is slightly better, the inflation rate has gone down, he probably thought it was a good time for him.”supposes Agnès Alexandre-Collier, professor of British civilization at the University of Burgundy. All the more so since “Bad news about the economy could come this summer or fall, making the Conservative campaign even more difficult going forward.”adds Paula Surridge, professor of political sociology at the University of Bristol.
How are elections conducted?
The United Kingdom is divided into 650 constituencies, each corresponding to a seat in the House of Commons. The system is a first-past-the-post system. Each voter votes for one candidate from a list of names. The candidate with the most votes is elected, even with only 20% of the vote.
As a result, the number of seats won by each party can be disproportionate to the total votes won. In 2015, the Scottish National Party (SNP) won 56 of the 59 seats up for grabs in Scotland, with only 50% of the vote. This system, also known as “First past the post” (“The first one to cross the finish line wins”), thus tends to distort national political representation by favoring large parties established at the local level, according to the Electoral Reform Society, an association which advocates for a reform of the voting system.
What is Rishi Sunak’s record?
Appointed in October 2022 to replace the former Conservative Prime Minister Liz Truss, who only governed for 45 days, Rishi Sunak was supposed to embody a return to seriousness. A former investment banker and finance minister, he set about restoring the image of the conservatives after the economic missteps of her predecessor and the scandal of Boris Johnson’s illegal parties during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Internationally, the Prime Minister has managed to restore ties with Paris and the European Union, after a period of relative freeze linked to Brexit. He has found a solution to the trade impasse between Northern Ireland and Brussels. But he is especially criticized for his highly controversial bill allowing the expulsion to Rwanda of asylum seekers who entered the United Kingdom illegally..
Internally, the country is going through multiple crises. Since 2022, inflation has caused energy bills, food prices, mortgages and rents to soar. This general increase in prices has however been reduced from 11% at the end of 2022 to 2% in May, but the IMF has warned of the “difficult choices” to come to stabilize this situation. The public health system is at the end of its rope. Caregivers have gone on strike on numerous occasions. Regarding the climate crisis, Rishi Sunak has drawn the ire of environmentalists by notably pushing back the ban on the sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2030 to 2035.
Which two personalities should you watch?
• Keir Starmer, the moderate Labour leader. At 61, the Labour leader was director of public prosecutions, the equivalent of an attorney general. Of modest origins, this former human rights lawyer entered politics late, becoming a Labour MP in 2015, reports The worldIn 2020, he replaced Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader and introduced a “zero tolerance” towards the anti-Semitism of which the party was accused. “He is a member of the Blairite fringe [de l’ancien Premier ministre Tony Blair] partyobserves Agnès Alexandre-Collier. He has made the link between New Labour and the left that supported Corbyn. But that does not work in his favour, because the asset of a leader in the United Kingdom is to position himself clearly in one camp.”
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Keir Starmer has presented centrist measures in the name of “seriousness”, marked by budgetary rigor, firmness on security and immigration. He has however promised to withdraw the controversial law on the expulsion of illegal migrants to Rwanda if he were Prime Minister, quotes the BBC. He has also promised to remove laws limiting the right to strike, but does not intend to increase welfare benefits. According to the BBC’s poll aggregator, as of June 24, Keir Starmer was credited with 41% of voting intentions.
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• Nigel Farage, the “Brexiter”, surprise candidate. This nationalist close to Donald Trump launched into the legislative campaign on June 3, after having assured that he would not be a candidate. Aged 60, he intends to take the lead of a “people’s army against the establishment”. A Member of the European Parliament for over twenty years, he is running this time under the banner of the Reform UK party (former Brexit Party, which he co-founded). A party “radical right-wing populist. Its leaders are tough on crime, they are libertarians since they want less state and less taxes. They are ‘ultra-Thatcherites'”, described near The cross Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. According to the BBC’s poll aggregator, as of June 24, 17% of voters intended to vote Reform UK.
What are the main measures of the parties in the campaign?
Labour has limited its proposals. Its campaign slogan is limited to a sober “Exchange” (“Change”) and their program is divided into five parts, including “rebuild Britain”, “getting the health system back on its feet” Or “take back our streets”. Labour is proposing to reduce waiting times in public hospitals by increasing the number of carers, and to recruit 13,000 additional police officers.
While the Conservatives had bet everything on “Get Brexit Done” in 2019“it seems that for the moment they are only proposing measures to appeal to older voters, tempted by Reform UK”observes Paula Surridge. Rishi Sunak has notably promised the “financial security” to voters, with new tax cuts.
For his part, Nigel Farage announced a freeze on immigration. “non-essential”the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights or the abandonment of the carbon neutrality objective.
Why are the Conservatives given the losing side?
Two weeks before the election, the Tories were on average more than twenty points behind Labour in the polls. On 24 June, the BBC gave Labour the victory with 41% of the vote, compared to 20% for the Conservatives. This gap can be explained in particular by the legacy of Boris Johnson’s scandals. “This has undermined popularity and confidence in the party”explains Paula Surridge.
The economic crisis caused by Liz Truss, who had promised significant tax cuts without an adequate financing plan, “ruined the party’s seriousness about the economy”continues the researcher. However, voters “might have forgiven the Tories if their bills had gone down or they had been able to access affordable loans,” she continues.
In addition, there is a form “electoral apathy” and of “cynicism” in the country, observes Professor Agnès Alexandre-Collier. According to a poll conducted by the think tank More in Common on May 30, the prospect of a Conservative victory makes respondents about as unhappy as “if it rained this weekend”but not as much as “if they stubbed their toe or had their phone stolen.”
The prospect of a Conservative victory on the other hand would make people on average about as unhappy as if it rains this weekend, but not quite as unhappy as if they were to stub their toe, or if their phone were to get stolen. pic.twitter.com/WY4fVuiuOy
— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) May 30, 2024
“The question now is how big a defeat the Tories will be: whether they will be wiped out completely or whether they can form a stable force.” in the House of Commons, continues Agnès Alexandre-Collier.
Can Labour return to power?
All Polls “show that Labour has a large enough lead to form a majority and a government,” explains Paula Surridge. However,“It is possible that the pollsters were wrong in terms of the exact distribution of votes.” According to YouGov projections released on June 3, Labour could win its biggest ever victory, taking 422 of the 650 seats.
Labour has also worked to appeal to the broadest possible electorate. Throughout the campaign, Keir Starmer has been “extremely cautious”says Karl Pike, a lecturer at Queen Mary University of London. “He presented a very moderate political project to reassure the greatest number of voters.” The British have “desire for alternation”, the researcher continues, the only question being to know “What kind of Prime Minister could Keir Starmer be?”
I didn’t follow everything, can you give me a summary?
Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called for an early general election on July 4. After fourteen years in power, the Tories are very unpopular in the country due to inflation, the crisis in the public health system, the “Partygate” scandals during the Boris Johnson era, and the hardening of immigration policy. “When he came to power, some observers thought that Rishi Sunak would succeed in boosting the party’s popularity, but the opposite happened,” observes Paula Surridge, professor of political sociology at the University of Bristol.
On the other side, Labour is given a lead of more than twenty points in all the polls. Their leader, Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer, is expected to become the country’s future Prime Minister. Eager to rally the largest possible electorate, he has developed a very centrist programme. Arriving late in the campaign, the former “Brexiter” and populist Nigel Farage could however pick up votes with his far-right party Reform UK.