For several years, the debates surrounding immigration have given rise to a formidable war of figures. In Canada, the contest pits Ottawa against Quebec, where there is dispute not only about targets, but also about responsibilities. In Quebec, the different political parties are leading a tournament based on reception capacity. These sometimes unhealthy wars oppose the theory of one-upmanship and extreme welcoming policy to that of pragmatism and the basic rules of the economy.
More than ever, mathematical science is entering the debate. It could even force a revision of the targets. This week, economists and strategists from the National Bank warned us, in a study that caused a stir, that Canada was surely sinking into a “demographic trap”, incapable of absorbing current levels of immigration and freezing in time the standard of living of its citizens. A week ago, colleagues from The Canadian Press revealed that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada had already had data for two years informing it of the potential negative impact of an increase in immigration targets in a context of significant gap between population growth and housing supply.
In its report published Tuesday on the consumer price index, Statistics Canada notes that housing is the main driver of inflation, with rent increases of 7.7% in Canada – 6.8% in Quebec — in the space of a year. Other numbers? The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported this week that housing starts fell 7% in Canada in cities of 10,000 or more, to just over 223 000. The authors of the National Bank study on the “demographic trap” warn that it is indeed around 700,000 housing starts per year, “an unattainable objective”, that Canada would need to respond to demand and curb galloping rent inflation.
Even if the equation therefore absolutely does not hold water, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continues to bet on a target of 500,000 permanent residents in Canada in 2025, as he reiterated this week during a visit to Montreal. With an aging population, the country is counting on international migration to enable it to experience demographic growth — the 1.1% increase noted by Statistics Canada during the last quarter is 96% attributable to immigration, no less.
But all applicants for status in Canada, whether they are foreign students, temporary workers or asylum seekers, must find accommodation. The balance is completely broken; it’s squaring the circle. In Quebec alone, nearly 500,000 temporary foreign workers, an essential workforce assigned to very often thankless tasks and for which Quebec is increasing recruitment efforts, are increasing the pressure on housing requests. There are 2.2 million of them in Canada! It is in this pool, and also in that of foreign students, that Justin Trudeau proposes to “restore order”. Hear: ask educational establishments and employers to house foreign students and workers themselves. This is not eliminating a problem, but simply moving it into someone else’s backyard. He also still preaches this crazy idea of transforming newcomers as quickly as possible into certified construction workers, ready to build their own homes. Blindness or heresy?
Long associated with a condition of the economic vitality of Canada and Quebec, immigration, following the policy of infinite opening of the floodgates practiced by the Liberal government, is it not rather becoming a brake? This is precisely the “demographic trap” that National Bank economists are talking about, that is, Canada’s inability to have the capital to absorb population growth and improve the standard of living of its citizens, which results in a decline in GDP per capita.
It is in this difficult context that Prime Minister François Legault takes up the pilgrim’s staff and urges his counterpart Trudeau to slow down the entry of asylum seekers into Quebec, which numbered 60,000 during the first 11 months of 2023. , the highest figure for all provinces, including Ontario. Quebec is right to campaign for a better balance, because it cares about the dignity of this vulnerable, penniless population, who too often now no longer even find accommodation in shelters. This contributes to the “tipping point” spoken about by the Minister of Immigration, Christine Fréchette, and which encourages the Parti Québécois to want to revise its immigration targets downward.
In this delicate operation of rebalancing the forces present, controlled purely and simply by mathematics, let us hope that our leaders will make an intelligent and sensitive arbitration between the needs of economic migration and our international commitments towards the vulnerable populations of the globe.