(Vancouver) Canadian universities are betting big on international students, but must contend with global geopolitical and economic trends in their quest for a lucrative market.
Statistics Canada data shows study permits for Chinese students have fallen by about 40% since 2018, when a row erupted between China and Canada over the arrest of the sector’s Chinese leader technology, Meng Wanzhou, in Vancouver.
That could partly explain the low enrollment rate at the University of British Columbia’s Vantage College, a $60,000-a-year program designed for international students who need help learning English.
The number of registrations was expected to rise to 1,000 by 2016, but they are currently only a sixth of that figure, at 172.
University spokesman Matthew Ramsey said the school was evaluating the Vantage model, but there remained a need for similar programs.
He explained that the enrollment deficit “occurs as students [étrangers] are increasingly entering directly into faculties and using faculty-specific programs to improve their English skills.”
The number of Indian students has meanwhile doubled since 2018, but the future of this market is now clouded by diplomatic tensions between Ottawa and New Delhi, following the murder of a Sikh activist in British Columbia.
Federal statistics show that international students contributed more than $22 billion to the Canadian economy last year, more than the contribution of exports of auto parts or lumber.
Statistics from the Council for International Education of British Columbia show the sector generated $330 million in government revenue in 2019, creating more than 53,000 jobs.
“It’s an important sector,” says Randall Martin, the council’s executive director, noting that this area covers everything from primary to secondary education, including two-year transfer colleges, language schools and degrees from major universities.
Mr. Martin argues that international students have played a vital role in “keeping the lights on” for Canadian universities in rural and remote areas, allowing schools to offer required courses that they would otherwise struggle to offer.
In many ways, the sector is a real success story. More than $7 billion is injected into the provincial economy through international education, and that includes tuition, housing, lodging, meals. And, yes, I think it’s fair to say that the number of international students will follow geopolitical trends.
Randall Martin, Executive Director of the Council for International Education of British Columbia
This sector in Canada, as in most popular international education destinations, relies largely on the high number of students from two countries: China and India.
Statistics Canada data shows that students from the world’s two most populous countries accounted for more than half of the nearly 550,000 study permits issued by Canada in 2022.
Regarding the drop in Chinese students following Meng Wanzhou’s arrest, Mr. Martin believes “the Chinese media has presented Canada as an unsafe place for Chinese students, and our numbers have been a bit decreases “.
Karin Fischer, who writes a weekly international education newsletter called Latitudes, says that while pandemic-related travel restrictions have led to the biggest drop in the number of foreign students, the number of Chinese students in the West has not hasn’t rebounded like the numbers for Indian students or elsewhere have.
Mme Fischer says higher travel costs and the reluctance of Chinese families to experience long separations from their children after the pandemic are contributing factors. However, deteriorating economic conditions in China, reducing students’ ability to pay and find work after graduation, could be one of the main reasons why their numbers have not recovered.
“Going to study in another country is a huge investment, even for a middle-class Chinese or Indian family,” says M.me Fischer. What do they expect from obtaining this diploma? What is their return on investment? »
“I wonder if some families [chinoises] wonder, “Gosh, should we spend all this money up front if we’re worried about whether our kid will graduate and not have a job when they come back?” »
While tuition at Vantage College is around $60,000, other international students at the University of British Columbia pay between $42,000 and $58,000. Canadian students pay between $6,000 and $9,000 per year.
Although the number of Chinese students has declined across Canada, the overall number of international students is increasing, largely thanks to Indian students.
Statistics Canada showed that the number of study permits issued to Indian students increased from 107,000 in 2018 to nearly 226,000 last year. In British Columbia, their number increased from 12,040 in 2015 to nearly 75,000 in 2022.
Mr. Martin says much of that growth came from immigration policy changes, which allowed students seeking a two-year degree to stay in Canada and work there for three years, opening up the door to permanent residence.
However, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau revealed last month that the Indian government may be involved in the murder of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, India issued a travel advisory warning of violence against Indian nationals. and students in Canada.
Mme Fischer points out that there is a precedent: the dispute between Canada and Saudi Arabia over the arrest of human rights activists by the Middle Eastern country in 2018. Permits issued to Saudi students were then passed from 5080 in 2017 to 1185 in 2019.
She added that Saudi Arabia had financed the students wishing to go abroad, and withdrew their scholarships during the dispute.
“In a country like India, it is almost entirely the students who pay their own fees,” says Ms.me Fischer. It is therefore difficult to know [l’impact de l’Inde], because these are students making all kinds of individual choices. »
Canadian universities are looking to diversify their international student populations beyond India and China.
Graham Barber, deputy director of international relations at Universities Canada, a national university advocacy organization, notes that recent outreach efforts have focused on countries like Mexico, Nigeria, Vietnam, Brazil and the Philippines – places where the middle class population is growing and young people are willing and able to travel to study.
“We have world-class institutions that are really, really good at this,” Barber says of finding new markets. One of the great things about being in Canada is that there is a very diverse population here. They really have these interpersonal connections that allow them to quickly adapt to different areas, and work with new partnerships. »