The Arab Spring of 2011, which saw the hopes of getting rid of dictators and corrupt regimes, is well and truly over. Winter has settled in the region.
The gradual dismantling of democracy in Tunisia by President Kaïs Saïed and the return last week of Syria to the Arab League, after 12 years of sidelining, are confirmation of this.
Tunisia was the only country that truly entered democracy, after forcing President Ben Ali into exile. It was seen as an example to follow. It is now in the hands of an autocratic and haughty president, determined to impose his personal and authoritarian vision on a disillusioned and demobilized population.
After declaring a state of exception on July 25, 2021, he gradually neutralized all the checks and balances put in place by the Democrats to prevent a return to dictatorship.
The Tunisian leader had a new constitution adopted in his favor with only 30.5% participation. The recent legislative elections, boycotted by the opposition, collected a vote rate of 11%!
However, these poor results do not stop President Saïed in his tracks. Seeking scapegoats, he recently accused African immigrants in Tunisia of wanting to replace Arab populations. Following violence and threats against their nationals in Tunisia, African embassies had to evacuate them urgently.
Since the beginning of February, more than 20 opponents and personalities, including ex-ministers, businessmen and the owner of the most popular radio station in the country, Mosaïque FM, have been arrested. These imprisonments include that of Rached Ghanouchi, historic leader of the Islamist movement Ennahda, who had contributed, along with other sectors of civil society, to the establishment of the Tunisian democratic process. He has just been sentenced to one year in prison for apologizing for terrorism.
Why has the democratic transition failed in this country? The reasons are many and varied.
Let us cite, for example, the personality conflicts of certain government officials and the behavior of part of the political class, giving the image of being more interested in power than in the fate of the population. The latter perhaps also had too high expectations of democracy. This system is not a miracle cure for all problems. And it requires some patience for it to bear fruit.
Tunisia’s economic resources are also limited. Western nations, so quick to defend democratic values in speeches, are sometimes less so when it comes to doing so in a concrete way, with political and economic support.
Bashar al-Assad’s return to grace
The other bleak development is the distressing return of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to the international scene. He was recently seen giving hugs to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the top of the Arab League in Jeddah.
The man who forced millions of Syrians into exile, destroyed the country and caused hundreds of thousands of victims simply watched the storm pass, with Russian, Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah support. Opportunistic, he took advantage of the destruction suffered during the recent earthquake in the region to obtain humanitarian aid, particularly from Gulf countries, part of which was undoubtedly diverted.
Assad also used a rather unusual means of pressure: the large-scale production and trafficking of a synthetic drug called captagon, a stimulant. The daily New York Times reported that the operational responsibility for this trafficking fell to the president’s younger brother, General Maher al-Assad, head of the elite group of the Syrian army.
It is claimed that in an attempt to stop the captagon trade, Saudi Arabia concocted Syria’s return to the Arab League. Indeed, it is wreaking havoc on Saudi youth.
Observers believe that the rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh obtained recently following Chinese efforts may also have played a role. Arab leaders apparently concluded that Assad was here for good and hoped that by resuming dialogue they could push him through political reforms.
We must now hope that our capitals do not draw the dubious conclusion of the Arab countries from the positive influence of the dialogue with Assad. The latter has as its sole objective the preservation of its sectarian regime. He is also credited with the intention of regaining control of Damascus over Lebanon. He would be maneuvering to put a pro-Syrian puppet president in Beirut.
Western countries’ loss of interest in the Middle East, China’s entry into the picture and Russia’s increased presence are unfortunately not promising vectors for the future of democracy and human rights. in this strategic region.
This happens when we face major challenges, whether climatic, migratory, social or economic. It is not clear that the autocratic leaders there can confront them effectively. The winter is likely to be long there.