By boasting of finally taking into account the reception capacity of Canada and the provinces, already severely tested, Justin Trudeau’s government now plans to “stabilize” its immigration targets… in three years. But, until then, the housing crisis, the main factor in this semblance of liberal adjustment, will not be resolved miraculously. The flexibility exhibited rather reflects a persistent stubbornness.
The warnings brandished by Quebec, that education, health and housing supply are struggling to respond to excessive federal immigration, are now shared by other Canadian provinces. The population is also worried about it now. A recent survey revealed that a record number of citizens believe that Canada welcomes too many immigrants (44% of Canadians, 37% of Quebecers).
Notwithstanding, the federal government is maintaining the planned increase for two more years: the target will increase to 485,000 immigrants in 2024 and 500,000 in 2025. It is the following year that this figure will remain frozen. However, between now and this announced freeze, there will be 55,000 more arrivals than if the government had stabilized its reception today at the 465,000 immigrants expected this year. A faster slowdown, however, would have negated liberal values, there was concern in its ranks.
However, the signals were encouraging. The strategic plan for immigration unveiled this week committed to “seek to integrate planning for housing and health, and other important services, into planning for Canada’s immigration levels.” All this, “in close collaboration with the provinces”. The Trudeau government even supported a non-binding Bloc motion calling on it to review its reception targets after consulting Quebec and the provinces “based on their reception capacity”.
But this new alignment, promised by Ottawa, will only happen after the fact. The federal government continues to ignore Quebec’s welcoming wishes. The federal “consultation” will only serve to distribute this number of new arrivals fixed unilaterally.
Never mind that experts, like those at TD Bank, have warned that a “demand shock” threatens Canada’s social safety net. It also doesn’t matter that the Auditor General denounced the bog in the processing of immigration applications, which drags on at 22 months for economic immigrants and four years for refugees. The arrival of half a million new arrivals per year will not help this bottleneck.
The Quebec government, for its part, is maintaining its targets at 50,000 new arrivals for the next two years. By counting the graduates welcomed by the Quebec Experience Program (PEQ), the annual figure will be around 60,000 immigrants.
Added to this, however, are the hundreds of thousands of temporary immigrants that Quebec and Ottawa persist in excluding from this reception equation. For the past two years, they have outnumbered permanent immigrants three times.
Failing to manage their arrival, Quebec resorts to requiring proficiency in French for some, after having done the same for economic immigrants and those on the PEQ. Some 35,000 temporary foreign workers other than agricultural workers will now also have to demonstrate this to renew their permit beyond three years — as so many of these workers who came to compensate for the labor shortage do.
François Legault sees in the protection of French, and, therefore, of Quebec identity, his “historical responsibility”. Immigration is no longer a threat, in his eyes, but has become a tool.
The requirement for this French test, however, seems embryonic. Will these temporary workers, already overworked, have the time and energy to devote themselves to it? Will their employers be forced to allow them, or simply encouraged? Will the francization resources be there?
The next few years will tell whether these immigration caps will be enough to stabilize the pressure on the social safety net feared by governments. Before debating it again during electoral campaigns, since they preferred to present shortened multi-year plans.