The American presidential election in three “yes, but…”

The nomination races of the two major American parties are, informally, over. For better or for worse, it will therefore be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. But recent polls still give us good indications of what could happen next fall. Here are some benchmarks in view of the presidential election on November 5.

Biden is more unpopular than in 2020…

In the last presidential election, in 2020, 42% of voters had a bad opinion of Joe Biden, which, in such a divided country, was to be expected. Today, according to the most recent survey of New York Times59% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of President Biden^⁠1.

This is largely due to a shaky economic situation since the start of his mandate, even if almost all indicators have returned to green since. Within the Biden campaign, we say we are sure that the good economic statistics of recent months will be felt in voters’ wallets by November. Maybe. But maybe not.

…but Trump still arouses the same reluctance as in 2020

More educated voters, voters from the suburbs of big cities and women in general had deserted the Republican Party because of the personality of Donald Trump. They do not seem to be on track to return there according to the latest polls.

Mr. Trump is almost as unpopular as his rival (54% unfavorable opinions, according to the New York Times), but there are divisions within the Republican Party itself that have emerged in recent weeks.

Nikki Haley only won two primary elections, but she received about 30 percent of the vote on Super Tuesday, according to exit polls. So almost a third of Republicans didn’t want to vote for Trump even though he was almost certain to win? This is definitely not a good sign for him.

Trump’s most serious adversaries are judges…

The big question is whether Mr. Trump’s legal troubles will catch up with him before November 5. He is, remember, facing 91 criminal charges.

Currently, polls indicate that Mr. Trump would lose as much as half of his support among Republican voters if he were convicted. No wonder that Mr. Trump’s lawyers, with the help – tacit or not – of certain judges, managed to push back the deadlines as long as possible.

The United States Supreme Court is scheduled to hear the former president’s petition starting April 25 that the president should enjoy full immunity from any prosecution arising from his term as president. The District of Columbia Court of Appeal has already ruled that he cannot invoke this immunity.

…but most trials cannot be held before the election

The Supreme Court’s decision – which could arrive quite quickly given the totally exaggerated nature of Mr. Trump’s claim of total immunity – is, in a way, a prerequisite for several of the criminal cases, which will not be able to proceed before the opinion of this court of last resort.

The most serious of these accusations – that of having conspired to change the outcome of the 2020 election in Georgia – is also delayed by the allegations about the private life of the prosecutor responsible for the case.

Justice operates at its own pace and does not take into account the electoral calendar. Especially since Mr. Trump has always been known to exhaust all avenues to delay his trials.

But two trials will proceed more quickly: March 25, in the case of payments to a porn star to hide an affair, and May 20, in the case of documents dealing with state secrets found at his Florida home.

Mr. Trump will therefore campaign while being accused in various courts, but it is not certain that he will be the subject of a conviction before the presidential election. And he can always appeal.

Joe Biden’s age is a serious problem…

No less than 70% of voters believe that Joe Biden, at 81, is too old to be president. His slips of the tongue and his apparent fragility have made headlines in recent months. But anyone who listened to the State of the Union address knows that this old lion should not be underestimated.

…but Trump isn’t much younger

On Election Day, Trump will be 78 years old. He is therefore from the same generation as Biden and he too has memory problems and sometimes gets confused.

During the election campaign, the media will necessarily scrutinize the statements of Mr. Trump – who has done rather well so far – more closely and both camps will widely publicize the slightest incident on all platforms.

1. Check out the survey New York Times (in English; subscription required)

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