In late summer 2023, the political cycle for the 2024 US presidential election will officially begin.
This cycle will begin around August 23, when the first debate will be held on the eve of the Republican Party’s primary season. Already, we are planning surprises. Some Republican candidates may not qualify. Then, the current leader, Donald Trump, has not yet confirmed his participation.
Among the Democrats, no internal tension is expected, but it is necessary to anticipate that President Biden will be visible this summer, with the aim of asserting his record. With an approval rate hovering around 40%, he must be very active and present in the media.
It should be noted that the recent judgments of the Supreme Court of the United States have certainly provided material for future debates.
A year ago, the Court caused quite a stir by overturning a 50-year-old judgment, Roe v. wade, which guaranteed access to abortion. This decision was an important and influential factor in the mobilization of certain key parts of the electorate and the outcome of the vote in the midterm elections last November, with the result that the Democrats came out better than what was then anticipated.
The Supreme Court and the politicization of justice
Recently, the Supreme Court has also ruled on some sensitive issues. Notably, rulings against affirmative action in college education, limiting the rights of the LGBTQ+ community, and rolling back President Biden’s student debt repayment program have drawn predictable reactions from Republicans and the Democrats.
The Republican Party welcomed the court’s rulings and the Democratic Party condemned the court’s bias. In these three specific cases, a majority of six judges against three ruled and President Biden took the liberty of expressing his disagreement at a press conference. He even described the highest court in the land as “not normal”.
Thus, it is clear that the nature of recent Supreme Court judgments has the effect of politicizing the role of this central organ of the American judiciary. The conservative bias of the body, reinforced by the appointment of three judges of ultra-conservative convictions by former President Trump, namely Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, is fueling controversy in the political class.
It is still difficult to predict the impact of these three judgments on the mobilization of the electorate and to determine which party will benefit from them, but it is clear that this reinforces the context of the politicization of justice set up by the judgment of the year against abortion.
The subject of these judgments will certainly be part of the debates for the presidential election of 2024.
Other major issues for 2024
Among Republicans, recent polls clearly indicate that former President Trump is the leader of the nomination race. Despite his recent setbacks with the law and the possibility that other charges may arise, particularly in relation to the events of January 6, 2021 and the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump continues to increase his lead over his opponents in a marked way.
The question that remains to be determined: will his advance, in his party, be able to help him with independent voters with a view to being re-elected as president? The same polls show that it is vulnerable in this regard.
Thus, the doubt persists and we can assume that the Americans will be entitled to a race filled with tensions during the primaries which begin in the fall. The fact remains that Mr. Trump remains the man to beat for his opponents within the Republican Party, because he has the ability to dominate the news.
As in all elections, we can expect the question of the economy to be decisive.
Among the Democrats, Joe Biden’s record seems solid, but the inflation rate remains high even though it has been falling for almost a year, and this is noticeable in the daily lives of Americans.
Otherwise, the unemployment rate is low, the infrastructure program set up by the Democratic president is working well, and the manufacturing sector is booming. However, more than 60% of Americans are dissatisfied with President Biden and his management of the economy. This is a significant factor for his re-election.
In short, the new electoral cycle is characterized by a climate of polarization fueled by the judiciary and affecting democratic issues. All of this is happening against the backdrop of the majority of Americans not wanting a replay of the 2020 duel between Biden and Trump. To be continued next fall!