The signing of an agreement to end the crisis between civilians and soldiers in Sudan was welcomed by the international community but, on the spot, the experts remain skeptical as to its ability to bring the country out of the slump in which it has been plunged since the putsch of last year.
This framework agreement, applauded by the UN, the African Union and several countries, was concluded on Monday after multiple attempts launched since the head of the army, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane, took power and ousted civilian leaders in the October 2021 putsch.
This coup had derailed the difficult transition to civilian rule, which began after the ousting in 2019, under pressure from the army and the street, of former President Omar al-Bashir, in power for nearly three decades and now in prison.
Since then, almost weekly demonstrations against the putsch have taken place despite the repression which left 121 dead according to doctors, in this very poor country, hit by an economic crisis and a rise in inter-ethnic violence.
The framework agreement was initialed by General Burhane, paramilitary commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo and several civilian groups, including the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) whose representatives had been ousted during the putsch.
“It’s a symbolic step that will have to materialize into a real agreement,” says Sudanese analyst Othman Mirghani, for whom, otherwise “it will only be a meaningless step”.
The agreement, which remains very general and sets only a few deadlines, “does not inspire confidence that it will actually lead to the reforms wanted by the people”, agrees Kholood Khair, an analyst with a group of think tank based in Khartoum.
“Democratic Regime”
“The soldiers will return to their barracks and the political parties to the elections,” promised General Burhane, to thunderous applause, during the signing ceremony.
His deputy, General Daglo called the coup a “political mistake” and reiterated the army’s commitment to leave the political scene, calling for a “democratic regime”.
For Ms. Khair, the signing of the agreement allows the army chief to show himself “in a favorable light with the international community”.
“It’s less true for civilians… who will have to do the heavy lifting and convince public opinion,” she adds.
The framework agreement provides that the civilian signatories will have to choose a prime minister responsible for leading a new transition phase of 24 months.
A complicated bet since the initiative was denounced by hundreds of pro-democracy Sudanese who gathered on Monday in Khartoum to cries of “the agreement is a betrayal”.
The framework agreement also provides for agreement on an agenda including transitional justice and reforms of the security services and the army, a phase which should be completed “within a few weeks”, according to the FFC.
This “could take several months”, believes Mr. Mirghani instead, a delay which the analyst describes as “risky”, the experts wondering if the army will agree to give up its economic interests and its broad powers.
“It’s going to depend on how much trust people are willing to place in the agreement and its signatories,” says Ms. Khair. “And to be frank, it is non-existent,” she adds.
In addition to some civil groups, a coalition including Islamists linked to the former regime of Omar al-Bashir called the agreement “misleading” and “flawed” and former rebel leaders, signatories in 2020 of a peace agreement with Sudan and fervent supporters of the putsch led a year ago by General Burhane, also said they were opposed to it.
For ex-rebel leader Mini Minawi, governor of the troubled Darfur region, the agreement is “exclusive”. Finance Minister and former rebel Jibril Ibrahim believes that “we are far from a national agreement and free and democratic elections”.
“It will be difficult to conclude a global agreement without agreeing with the armed groups, in particular those of Ibrahim and Minawi”, affirms for his part Mr. Mirghani.