The Middle East specialist, associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) was the guest of “8h30 franceinfo” on Sunday October 8.
David Rigoulet-Roze, specialist in the Middle East, associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations was the guest of “8h30 franceinfo” on Sunday October 8. He responded to Julie Marie-Leconte and Jean-Rémi Baudot
What response from Israel?
After the Hamas offensive on Israel, the question of the Jewish state’s response arises. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promises that “the enemy will pay a price he has never known”, which portends a muscular response. For David Rigoulet-Roze: “The response will be massive, and given the recall of the reservists, there will be a ground operation. This is the first time that Hamas has taken the risk of a frontal and global operation, this is why Israel is speaking of war.” An attack that almost imposes an Israeli response: “Given what happened, more than 300 dead, thousands injured, cities invested in internationally recognized territory, this is unprecedented, and the response will be such as has never been seen before “Given the scale of the losses, the response will have to be proportional to what is seen as the equivalent of September 11.”
“There is a real risk of escalation”
Missile fire was claimed by Lebanese Hezbollah, leading to an Israeli response in southern Lebanon. According to the researcher, a specialist in the Middle East, Hamas did not act alone: “There have been arms transfers, transfers of know-how. There is clearly an Iranian leg which allows local manufacturing of missiles.” Support that can upset the balance in the region: “There have been meetings between Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas. The idea that the time for truce is over has been assumed. The possible front on the Lebanese side is a real concern for Israel. on the other hand, Israel will not be able to avoid a strongly dissuasive response, which could lead to a response, there is a real risk of escalation. There will clearly be a before and after October 7.”
In the background, normalization between Israel and certain Arab countries
“It is a success for Hamas, believes David Rigoulet-Roze, because they demonstrated that they were in a position to destabilize the State of Israel. Obviously, in opinions, it will be capitalized. As such, the fact of having succeeded in this will constitute in narrative terms an achievement for the Palestinian cause. Now the question is actually why it was launched. Some consider that part of the calculation is not that of Hamas. There is also in the background the question of normalization between certain Arab states – Bahrain, United Arab Emirates then Morocco – and Israel, already effective during the Abraham Accords. And there is the question of Saudi Arabia. We might think that seen from Iran, this poses a huge problem. And that would also explain the rapprochement that Tehran attempted last March with Riyadh.”
An “increasingly inextricable” conflict
The Middle East specialist is not very optimistic for the future: according to him, the possibility of a political settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is receding. “France, no more than other countries, has no control over a conflict which appears more and more inextricable, estimates David Rigoulet-Roze. This is a tragedy for all countries and all stakeholders. The two-state solution appears increasingly compromised on the ground.”
Watch the interview in full: