In January 2022, the borrowing rate, to be able to realize his dreams as a future owner, was at 1.12%, in May 1.7%. It was still 1.88 last September. The housing credit observatory has just published the figure of 2.05% on average, for loans contracted in October.
franceinfo: The credit rates offered by banks have just crossed a symbolic threshold: that of 2%?
Raphael Ebenstein: 2.05% on average, very precisely, according to the CSA housing credit observatory, for loans contracted in October, against 1.88% in September. In detail, only the average rate for loans over 15 years remains below 2%. But it is above for loans at 20 or 25 years.
According to the online broker VousFinancer, some banks now even offer loans at almost 3% over the longest periods. A repercussion in fact of their own difficulties in refinancing with the European Central Bank which itself continues to increase its rates, another 0.75 point last week, in the face of soaring inflation.
Even though the Banque de France had nevertheless given a small ball of oxygen to the banks, by increasing what is called the usury rate in October, that is to say the maximum rate at which they can lend money. money to their customers.
Concretely, what are the main consequences for households?
Logically, they have to borrow a long time to buy the same apartment or the same house, the price of which has not changed. The average duration of loans thus exceeded 244 months in October, or a little over 20 years. A record level, never reached in the past. For the record, for example, we were at just 200 months in 2014, or even 225 months at the start of 2021. Another consequence, again unsurprisingly: the borrowing capacity of households is decreasing.
According to the calculations of VousFinancer, a household which cannot exceed 1000 euros of monthly payment to be repaid every month, will not be able to acquire a property of a value greater than 230,000 euros, where it could target an apartment or a house sold 259 000 euros, barely 1 year ago.
Could this rise in borrowing rates also have other consequences, particularly on real estate prices?
That’s the whole question! We are not observing a uniform trend for the moment, but the price per m2 is starting to fall in certain large cities, including Paris, – 0.5% over 1 month, according to the real estate site MeilleursAgents. – 0.8% even in Bordeaux or Strasbourg, – 0.7% in Toulouse, – 0.6% in Rennes.
But they still continue to increase in Lille, Marseille, Montpellier or Nice. Real estate specialists do not anticipate, in any case, a future collapse in prices, because the stone always appears as a safe haven in times of high inflation, even if the credit rates are less and less favourable.