Since 2019, residents of the federal riding of Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie are the only ones in Quebec to be represented in the House of Commons by a member of the New Democratic Party (NDP). Elected for the first time in 2011, Alexandre Boulerice is the last of the cohort of NDP MPs from the famous “orange wave” to still sit in Ottawa. It is thus up to this former unionist, appointed deputy leader of the NDP in 2019, to defend the federal policies which his party claims to be related to, but which raise controversy in Quebec due to the interference in the spheres of provincial jurisdiction that they lead. How does he square the circle?
“Healthy smiles thanks to the NDP,” reads the cover page of the leaflet that Mr. Boulerice recently sent to residents of Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie to extol the merits of the new federal dental care program, in which Ottawa is committed to investing $13 billion over the next five years. “Thanks to the NDP, no one will have to choose between treating a cavity and putting food on the table,” we add, in bold letters, in this celebratory missive.
Mr. Boulerice recently undertook a tour of seniors’ residences in his riding to praise the merits of the new program. “If you register, you will be able to go to the dentist, and you will not have to pay money and, afterwards, get reimbursed,” we see explaining to residents in a Radio-Canada report. . The invoice will be sent directly to Ottawa. It could be a prosthesis, implants or dentures. That’s all covered. »
However, this new program may never see the light of day in Quebec. François Legault’s government is demanding the ability to exercise its right to withdraw with full compensation from the federal program in order to improve the existing provincial dental care plan, whose eligibility criteria differ from those of the federal program. However, the New Democrats, who had made the launch of the new program a condition of maintaining their support for Justin Trudeau’s minority Liberal government, already speak of its achievement as a fait accompli and a great victory for their party. Like the new federal drug insurance plan, which they forced the Liberals to launch, this would be further proof that the NDP is bringing about concrete changes for the least well-off Canadians. The pressure exerted by this group on the Trudeau government, whose survival depends on the votes of NDP deputies in the House, is bearing fruit.
Indeed, the jurisdictional conflicts that Quebec politicians are concerned about do not seem to resonate much with ordinary voters. It is in Quebec that registrations for the new dental care program are, by far, the highest in the country. The bet of the NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh, who presents himself as the one who wants to “improve people’s lives”, while Quebec politicians talk about areas of jurisdiction, is perhaps not so crazy as that.
Certainly, unless there is a spectacular turnaround, we are not on the eve of a new orange wave in Quebec. The latest Abacus poll only gives the NDP 9% of voter support in the province, which places it far behind the Bloc Québécois, still in the lead with 35% of voting intentions. But for Mr. Singh and his troops, the next elections could constitute a golden opportunity to supplant the Liberals by becoming the first progressive party outside Quebec.
A collapse of the Liberal vote — a scenario that would become increasingly plausible as voter antipathy toward Mr. Trudeau continues to rise — would allow the NDP to take back several ridings that the Liberals won by a narrow majority in 2021, including Toronto-Danforth, former stronghold of the late Jack Layton, Parkdale-High Park and Davenport, also in Toronto. NDP gains in the metropolis would help the party offset probable seat losses in northern Ontario and British Columbia, where the rise of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party threatens the survival of several outgoing NDP MPs. The popular MP for Timmins-James Bay, NDP Charles Angus, announced this week that he would not seek re-election, leaving a void that Mr. Singh will have difficulty filling.
In Quebec, the NDP dreams of taking back Laurier–Sainte-Marie. The flagship riding fell to the Liberals in 2019 with the entry into politics of Steven Guilbeault. But the poll aggregator 338Canada now gives the advantage to the NDP in this riding and predicts a hot fight between the Liberals and the NDP in Outremont, the scene of the symbolic NDP breakthrough in Quebec represented by the victory of Thomas Mulcair during a complementary election in 2007.
As for Mr. Boulerice, he seems immovable in Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie. The riding is classified as “Solid NDP” by 338Canada. Will he still find himself alone after the next election? Even a single New Democratic gain in Quebec in the next election would vindicate Mr. Singh’s strategy, whatever the defenders of the prerogatives of the Quebec government may say.