“Tensions in the region are evolving in an extremely worrying manner,” says a Franco-Lebanese political scientist

A raid blamed on Israel targeted the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus on Monday, killing eleven people including seven Iranian Revolutionary Guards, in a tense regional context in the midst of war in the Gaza Strip. Insights from Ziad Majed, political scientist and professor of Middle East studies at the University of Paris.

In an extremely tense regional context against a backdrop of war in the Gaza Strip, Israeli strikes on an annex of the Iranian embassy in Damascus caused several victims on Monday April 1. The latest report shows eleven deaths, including seven Iranian Revolutionary Guards. For Ziad Majed, a Franco-Lebanese political scientist and professor of Middle East studies at the University of Paris, the message, beyond the military objective strictly speaking, is clearly aimed at Iran. He was the guest of Franceinfo.

Franceinfo: What could be the consequences of this raid?

Ziad Majed: This shows that tensions in the region – and no longer just on the Palestinian map – are evolving in an extremely worrying manner. There is already a medium-intensity war between Hezbollah and Israel on Lebanon’s southern border. There, with a series of strikes in Syria, Israel shows that it wishes to maintain pressure on the Iranians’ allies and on the Iranians themselves. Knowing that at the same time, there are negotiations between Iranians and Americans in Omman. It is a message from Netanyahu’s government that a war with Hezbollah, and indirectly with Iran, can no longer be ruled out. This war can, at the same time, serve the Israeli extreme right to prolong this catastrophic moment in the region, and it also serves to divert attention from the ongoing genocide in Gaza, especially after the massacres in the Al-Hospital. Chifa and with the pressure mounting on Israel to limit the damage and to limit the crimes committed in Gaza.

Will Iran retaliate, or can it, will it?

For the moment, Iran, like its most powerful ally in the region, the Lebanese Hezbollah, is avoiding retaliating, knowing that there are already fighting and skirmishes underway in southern Lebanon. For the moment, the Iranians prefer to maintain this war at medium intensity rather than move towards total war for various reasons. They know that the situation in Lebanon today does not allow for war, a disastrous economic and political situation for the Lebanese. They know that their ally, Hezbollah, takes this Lebanese reality into account. And at the same time, the Iranians still have priority over the nuclear issue. So they prefer a solution with the Americans allowing the lifting of sanctions, sorting out the whole nuclear issue without going into general confrontation.

On the Israeli side, on the other hand, there are more and more worrying messages. Both international, American and French envoys – including the Minister of Foreign Affairs, who went to Beirut – inform the Lebanese government that there is, on the Israeli side, a desire to impose by war or through negotiations, a withdrawal of Hezbollah from the border. For its part, Hezbollah wants the Israelis to stop the violation of Lebanese airspace and therefore the return to UN Resolution 1701. But at the same time, the Israelis strike the relays in Syria which allow Hezbollah to be supplied by Iran.

“We see that we are in an extremely dense, tense moment, with a potential for conflict that is growing more and more. And the Iranians cannot not respond.”

But I think their response will remain very measured so as not to allow an escalation that goes beyond their control or their ability to react in a situation that is not a total war. They always prefer that it be a limited war, under control, without much risk for them and for Lebanese Hezbollah.

How is Syria positioned?

For Syria, today, the country is fragmented by several forces: Iran, Russia, there is a strong American and Turkish presence, there is the Syrian Golan occupied by Israel since 1967. Damascus and Bashar Al Hassad suffer the consequences of all this. Bashar Al Hassad’s obsession is just that his regime can survive after all the massacres it has suffered against its own population. The Revolutionary Guards are a body parallel to the Iranian army which plays a role mainly on the Iraqi and Syrian scenes and in support of Hezbollah. So it is a very important body which is directly linked to the guide of the Revolution and the Republic, Ali Khamenei. Targeting him shows Tel Aviv’s desire to show firmness and aggressiveness towards the Iranians, accused of supporting their regional enemies. Attacking in Syria is an obvious violation of international law but unfortunately for the Syrians everyone is now allowing themselves to settle scores on their territory. Obviously, for the Middle East, this is an additional tension knowing that everyone in the region today observes with frustration, anger and helplessness the genocide underway in Gaza.