What form will Israel’s response take?
This is the question on everyone’s lips. On Sunday, Israeli Minister Benny Gantz, a member of the war cabinet, said Israel would make “Iran pay the price in a way and at a time that suits us.”
Professor in the Department of Middle Eastern History at Tel Aviv University, Meir Litvak imagines three possible scenarios.
In the first, Israel would respond massively to the Iranian attack, risking an escalation with Tehran, which warned on Sunday that any response would provoke a much “stronger” military response.
A scenario that the United States, Israel’s main ally, wants to avoid at all costs. “It will be difficult to do this without clear American support, which is not the case currently,” notes Mr. Litvak.
PHOTO ARASH KHAMOOSHI, THE NEW YORK TIMES
A rally took place on Sunday in Palestine Square in Tehran in support of the Islamic Republic’s offensive against Israel.
Less likely, Israel could decide to refrain from retaliation, especially since the Iranian attack caused no casualties.
“Some Israelis think that now is not the time to launch into new fronts,” observes Raz Zimmt, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
This scenario, however, carries risks. “Israel would compromise its deterrent against Iran,” he said.
Ultimately, the Jewish state could respond “in a moderate manner,” which would allow it to punish the Iranian attack without necessarily provoking an escalation of the conflict.
“Regardless of what happens in the coming days, we have entered a new, very dangerous phase of the confrontation between Iran and Israel,” underlines Mr. Zimmt.
The Iranian strike was mostly foiled by the Israeli army and its allies. Can we talk about a failed attack?
It depends who’s talking. It is true that Israel was able to intercept almost all of the drones and missiles sent during the night from Saturday to Sunday towards its territory.
The day after the attack, the Jewish state reported minimal damage, notably to a military base which remains operational.
However, the head of the Iranian armed forces welcomed on Sunday an attack which “achieved all its objectives”.
“If you ask the Iranians, they will tell you it is a success,” says Raz Zimmt.
This is because Iran has been engaged in a proxy war with Israel for years, without direct confrontation. “Iran has succeeded in changing the rules of the game,” he notes.
American specialist in Middle East history James Gelvin notes that Tehran had signaled in advance its intention to attack Israel, in addition to using slow-moving drones.
“Military experts believe that Iran has shown restraint,” reports the professor at the University of California at Los Angeles.
Nonetheless, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the winner of this attack, believes the director of regional security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Emile Hokayem, in a text published in the Financial Times.
“The Iranian attack has galvanized Western support [envers Israël] after weeks of growing criticism of his brutal campaign in Gaza,” he wrote.
Exactly, what impact will the Iranian attack have on the conflict in the Gaza Strip?
It is still early to say, say the experts interviewed. “I doubt that the story of the Iranian attack on Israel will supplant international concern about the Israeli campaign in Gaza,” says James Gelvin.
In the short term, the international community will continue to denounce the humanitarian crisis in the Palestinian enclave, he believes.
However, attention could be diverted if the situation were to worsen between Israel and Iran.
“Iran’s attack could well relegate the war to this region [entre Israël et le Hamas, et ses ravages dans la bande de Gaza] at the back of the global agenda, just as calls for an immediate ceasefire and better access for humanitarian aid were gaining momentum. The negotiations on the Israeli hostages, already at an impasse, risk being suspended for a certain time,” writes Emile Hokayem in the Financial Times.
Will Israel attack Iranian nuclear power?
Iran struck Israel “in a controlled manner”, notably “to avoid suffering such a substantial response from Israel which would compromise its nuclear program”, observed Hasni Abidi, of the Center for Studies and Research on the Arab and Mediterranean world, in an interview with AFP.
“If Israel retaliates, it will be according to the same parameters: on military sites, not on the civil part and probably not on the economic part,” Sima Shine, a researcher at the Institute for Studies on Human Rights, told AFP. national security, in Tel Aviv.
The Iranian nuclear program has for years been at the heart of tensions between Tehran and Israel, which accuses the Islamic Republic of seeking to acquire atomic weapons, which it denies.
With Agence France-Presse