Tensions around Taiwan | Beijing rallies Honduras to its cause

The Chinese government, which is stepping up pressure to bring Taiwan back into its fold, succeeded this week in convincing another country to cut ties with the independence regime in place in Taipei.

Honduras, citing economic motivations, announced a few days ago that it intended to sever diplomatic ties with the island and would support the claims of Beijing, which considers Taiwan to be an integral part of its territory.

Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina said the government unsuccessfully asked Taiwan to increase its financial aid to the country and renegotiate a debt of several hundred million dollars before deciding to turn to the China.

A Taiwanese spokesman warned Honduras that it risked, by seeking “to quench its thirst with poison”, to find itself financially trapped by the communist regime of President Xi Jinping.

“It’s dollar diplomacy,” summarizes Serge Granger, China specialist attached to the University of Sherbrooke, who is not unduly surprised by the change of course demanded by Beijing.

The Asian giant, he says, continues to grow in importance economically and uses its growing capacities to invest in a number of countries which are in return required to follow its political dictates, particularly in relation to Taiwan.

The tactic has worked particularly well in Central America, where Honduras’s about-face follows those of several other countries, including Costa Rica, Panama, El Salvador and Nicaragua.

In Washington’s backyard

June Dreyer, a specialist in Asia attached to the University of Miami, notes that the announcement of Honduras marks a “symbolic victory” for Beijing, but does not come to radically change the situation in its balance of power with Taiwan.

The separatist regime in place has mainly concentrated its efforts on influential countries on the international scene, the United States in the lead, and has “rather succeeded in this respect”, while China is gaining points with developing countries.

The US government, which defends the status quo on Taiwan without maintaining formal diplomatic relations with the island, would be wrong to overlook the progress made by Beijing in Central America, since a seemingly minor advance can quickly lead to more difficult problems. , observes M.^me Dreyer.

Washington has been particularly alarmed in recent years by the planned construction in El Salvador, with the support of China, of a major port which could eventually serve military purposes.

“A lot of analysts claim that China would never want to come and challenge the United States in their backyard, but I’ve always found that to be a terribly naïve view. Beijing is making gains in the region,” warns M^me Dreyer.

Campaigns against criticism

Excluding Honduras, there are only 13 states left around the world that officially recognize Taiwan diplomatically, and this number could decrease further due to the “systematic” campaign led by Beijing, warns Guy Saint-Jacques, former -Canadian Ambassador to China.

The erosion of Taipei’s international support will be used, he says, in particular to carry out disinformation campaigns on the island in order to convince the population to support parties more favorable to Chinese aims during the elections scheduled for the beginning of the year. next.

Beijing, says Mr. Saint-Jacques, has also made considerable efforts to increase Taipei’s economic dependence on it and is now establishing itself as its main trading partner, ahead of the United States.

“The US government has also warned Taiwan about this,” he notes.

The current decrease in the number of countries supporting Taiwan does not change the military situation, but it does put Beijing in a better position diplomatically to manage the fallout from its actions, underlines Serge Granger.

“China likes to control talk about it in international forums. The increase in the number of allied countries may allow it to more effectively bypass any resolutions critical of it,” he concludes.