Several European countries are now facing a spectacular increase in the number of Covid-19 contaminations. A situation judged “very worrying “in ten countries by the European Agency for Diseases. In its latest risk assessment, the European Center for Disease Control (ECDC) estimates that “the epidemiological situation in the EU is currently characterized by a rapid and significant increase in cases and a low but slowly rising death rate”. Corn “cases, hospitalizations and death toll are all expected to increase over the next two weeks, “ warns the European agency based in Stockholm.
Deaths up 50% in the next two weeks
During the last seven days, some 2,125,775 cases have been identified or 303,682 per day on average, according to a report established by AFP from official sources. It is 13% more than the previous week. Russia, UK, Germany, Turkey and Ukraine alone account for more than 50% of new weekly European cases.
Among the 27, Belgium, Poland, the Netherlands, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary and Slovenia are in the highest concern category. In countries listed in the category “disturbing“, we find Germany, Austria, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Romania and Slovakia.
France is among the three countries classified in the category “moderate worry” alongside Portugal and Cyprus. Four countries are finally generating a “low worry “ (Italy, Spain, Sweden and Malta). For the three other non-EU countries monitored by the agency (Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein), the situation is judged “idisturbing “.
The method used by the ECDC for the categories of concern combines the absolute values (number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths) but also their recent evolution. According to its latest projections, the number of cases and deaths are expected to increase by around 50% over the next two weeks, to reach a weekly rate of 300 new cases and 2.7 deaths per 100,000 population.
New restrictions
Faced with this situation, several governments have decided to implement new restrictions. In Germany, where the situation is already tense in some hospitals which also suffer from a lack of nursing staff, Covid-19 tests will again be free from Saturday and a bill is under consideration to impose the obligation of wearing a mask and social distancing in public spaces until March 2022.
Austria, for its part, should decide on Sunday to impose a confinement to people who have not been vaccinated, in response to record levels of daily infections.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron announced on Tuesday that the vaccination booster will be mandatory to validate the health pass for people over 65 from December 15.
The 30-39 year olds particularly affected in France
In France, the number of contaminations is also increasing. According to the latest report from Public Health France, 2,603 new cases of Covid-19 were identified 24 hours on Thursday, November 11, against 9,502 on November 4. An increase which is explained, among other things, by the fact that November 1, a public holiday, had not been taken into account during the previous weekly point.
For the time being, this increase in contamination does not translate into a sudden increase in number of hospital and intensive care admissions. But it is still a little early to draw conclusions, because the curve of hospitalizations follows that of daily cases with a ten or fifteen days. It is today among the 30-39 years of age as the incidence rate is highest.
Vaccination, the main hope for reducing hospitalizations
To avoid a new saturation of hospitals, governments are counting more than ever on vaccination. “A vaccinated person is 11 times less likely to end up in the hospital in critical care “, hammered the President of the Republic during his speech Tuesday. “51 million of us are now fully vaccinated, which makes us one of the best protected countries in the world “, he congratulated himself.
In Spain, where the situation is currently under control, 79% of inhabitants are fully vaccinated against 67% in Great Britain and Germany. And almost all of the over 70s (99%) are, a rate higher than in France or Italy, thanks to a vaccination campaign that strictly followed the age pyramid.
Several scientists are now arguing for the extension of vaccine boosters to a larger part of the population and the vaccination of adolescents. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) is currently evaluating the efficacy of the vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech in children aged 5 to 11. But vaccines alone will not be able to definitively defeat the pandemic warn virologists who call for the wearing of masks to be perpetuated and to respect barrier gestures.