Statistics Canada, in an unusual initiative, wanted to defend its methodology for estimating the number of temporary residents in Canada, the accuracy of which has recently been called into question by experts.
“Our methods are robust and transparent,” said a specialist from the agency, as part of an information session aimed at describing the approach used by Statistics Canada for the production of census data on this issue, which will be made public on September 27.
Criticism of the estimates for non-permanent residents (NPRs, or foreign students, temporary workers and asylum seekers) first came from CIBC Deputy Chief Economist, Global Markets, Benjamin Tal, who released a report on August 30, in which it estimated that there could be a million more NPRs in the country than government data indicates. The main reason for this discrepancy would be that temporary residents are assumed to have left the country no later than 30 days after the expiration of their visa.
In 2021, the number of non-permanent residents was estimated at one million in Canada. Mr. Tal believes that number is more like two million, or even more.
Another study, from the CD Howe Institute, looks at employment estimates and notes a significant difference, also of a million people, between the number of temporary residents who are part of the labor force. work, according to Statistics Canada’s Labor Force Survey (LFS), and the number of temporary residents counted by Immigration Canada.
Estimating non-permanent residents is important for several reasons, including assessing housing needs, determining the level of federal transfers to each province based on population, or even calculating GDP per capita.
Statistics Canada did not want to respond to the arguments of these studies, saying that it is up to their authors to defend them. After insisting on the accuracy of its results, the agency instead showed how it overcame the difficulties inherent in estimating temporary residents.
She also indicated that she had reviewed her methodology to meet Immigration Canada processing times.
“Although Statistics Canada has processes in place to enumerate the entire population, and the agency conducts tracking activities, non-permanent residents can be difficult to reach and sometimes do not have the opportunity to complete their census questionnaire”, recognized Statistics Canada, adding that the studies “make it possible to estimate the number of people who were not enumerated in the census, but who should have been, as well as the number of persons who have been counted more than once.
The federal agency also highlighted elements that indirectly corroborate the accuracy of its data.
First of all through the analysis of consumer spending. Data for food expenditure in volume constitute an indirect way of measuring the evolution of a population since all people who reside in Canada must eat, regardless of their legal status. However, after a surge during the pandemic, these expenditures began a decline which brought them back to their pre-pandemic level, a trajectory that would be impossible if there was a significant unmeasured increase in the population of temporary residents.
Another piece of corroboration comes from comparing the results of two major monthly labor market surveys carried out by Statistics Canada: the Labor Force Survey (LFS) and the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours of work (EERH). These two studies are based on different approaches, the first by survey, the second by analysis of administrative data. But in both cases, the results evolve in a similar way. If, according to the organization, there were problems with underestimation of non-permanent residents, the two indicators would tend to diverge.